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The Challenge the Opportunity. Opportunity.
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Business Ready Infrastructure. • Success Stories. •
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27 A 2009
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. . . And so the cycle goes: recessions happen . . . and then they come to an end
Recessions lead to a significant reshuffling of industry leaders . . .
. . . and the impact of “winning” or “losing” on shareholder value is substantial
Leadership changes in recession* 1998-2002
Real GDP change Over prior quarter
TRS% (Total Return to Shareholders) 1989-1993
Recession
100
100
67
25 20
40
15
40% of leaders were not leaders prior to recession
5 0 1900 -5
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000 60
-10
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28
-15 -20 -25
More than 15 recessions in the last 100 years
Pre-
Post-
Recession
Recession
Leaders Leaders (#1, #2 in share) Only 60% of companies that were topquartile before the recession retained their leadership position after the recession
Leaders
Laggards
TRS gap between ‘Leaders’ and ‘Laggards’ is 2X 2 years post-recession*
* Before re recession cession ranking ranking based on 1998 and 1999, after rece recession ssion rank ranking ing on 2001 and 2002; evaluating evaluating change in position of 1,024 US industrial companies* Source: McKin McKinsey sey analysis
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