Term Paper - Case of Wireless Technologies

 

Joshua Levy: Term Paper: Higher School of Economics, Moscow

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Future of of ICT ICT:: Case of W Wireless ireless Technologies Будущее информационнотелекоммуникационных телек оммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии

Joshua Levy M.Sc. in Science Technology and Innovation Джошуа Леви Специальность «Управление наукой, технологиями и инновациями»

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................ ............................................. ........................................................................................ ......................... 3     Goals and Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 3 Technological definition de finition & Components ........................................................................................ ................................................... ..................................... 3  

Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 4  Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 13  Critical Technologies ................................................................................................................ ............................................................ .................................................... 14   Cellular Communication ....................................................................................................... ................................................... .................................................... 14   Wireless Sensor Networks ........................................................................................................ ............................................................. ........................................... 16   STEEPV ................................................... ............................................................................................................. ................................................................................. ....................... 19  Social..................................................................................................................................... 19  Technological .................................................................................................................. .......................................................... .............................................................. ...... 20  Environment............................................................................................................ ................................................. ......................................................................... .............. 22   Economic .............................................................................................................................. 23  Political ................................................................................................................................. 25  Values ................................................................................................................................... 27  SWOT ....................................................................................................................................... 28  Strengths ............................................................................................................................... 28  Opportunities......................................................................................................................... 29  Weakness .............................................................................................................................. 30  Threats................................................................................................................................... 31  Scenario......................................................................................................................................... 33  Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 34  Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 50  Declaration of Oath ....................................................................................................................... ................................................................... .................................................... 51  

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Introduction Since the late 20th century ever since the first commercial computer was developed and sold, and with the discovery of radio transmission, our society has gradually progressed towards and always-on-always-connected society. The invention of mobile phone revolutionized the way we communicate with each other. In a rapidly developing and dynamic market, there has been a  paradigm shift towards an inter-connected technology, which has defined the society at present. A few years ago, we could have imagined downloading a full HD movie in a few minutes using ordinary broadband, however, come 2015, and we can download a whole HD movie using 4G mobile. Therefore, as this technology is highly fluid, dynamic and evolving at an exponential  pace, this paper will analyse the impact of wireless technology on the economy, together with changes in lifestyle brought about it. By using foresight and its connected methodologies, a visionary future would emerge which will attempt to determine its impact on various sectors.

Goals and Objectives The primary goal of this research paper is to analyse the past and present technological developments within the sphere of wireless technologies and the primary objective is to develop a foresight of its adaptation and implementation within the 10 years using STI tools, drivers and market research in conjunction with consumer con sumer and technological trends.

Technological definition & Components Although wireless technology has multiple definitions to it, (Hiser et.al) 2001 1 defines wireless as “context of using radio frequencies to transmit data over the medium of air instead of the traditional wireline copper and fibre transports” consequently, the technology can be defined as a collection of wireless standard in data transmission over the air. The most popular and consumer oriented wireless technologies are WiFi, Bluetooth and mobile internet (3G, 4G) etc.. Although the technology is quite varied and can be implemented across many levels, there are key components without which the technology would not work: 1. Transmitter This is hardware device that transfers electromagnetic or radio waves using the scatter system i.e. the transmission of radio waves is not uniform and is spread across the area covered, based on lognormal distribution2  2. Receiver This unit receives the incoming electromagnetic wave from the transmission, which is then  passed on to a baseband processor. The main primary objective of the baseband is to tune the receiver unit at the desired frequency of operation and deciphering information before being  passed on to the microcontroller.

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 Wheat, J, R Hiser, J Tucker, A Neely, and A McCullough. Designing a Wireless Network. Syngress Publishing, Inc., 2001. Accessed 1st March 2015 2  “What Is a Transmitter IC?” Future Electronics, 2012. http://www.futureelectronics.com/en/wireless-rf-radiofrequency/transmitter-ics.aspx.. Access March 2, 2015 frequency/transmitter-ics.aspx Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

3. GSM /GPRS 3 GSM   stands for Global System for Mobile Communication and GPRS stands for General Packet Radio Service. This is the international standard for voice communication using wireless technology. Commonly referred to as GSM or 2G (Second Generation), this technology  primarily operates on 800-900 MHz.. GPRS is the data communication technology that is  primarily used for accessing the internet sending text messages and Multimedia messages (MMS) 4. 3G /HSDPA Third generation (3G) and High Speed Download Packet Access is a relatively, modern evolution of wireless technology which is aimed at fast internet access coupled with VOIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) for online telephony. 5. Bluetooth Bluetooth is a technological standard that forms a key part of the wireless technology; broadly, it is a point-to-point connection protocol, which is used for data transmission between two devices. 6. WiFi WiFi is a collection of wireless technology standards, which is used for data transmission.

Literature Review As this research, paper is focused on both the social and technological aspects of wireless technology, the literature review tri-fold. The first aspect outlines a technological review outlining various evolutions within the wireless technology, with a special focus on telecommunication. The second aspect concerns the social impact created as result of wireless technology within our society. The third aspect is the technology forecasting within the 10 years.

Emergence   o f   Wireless   Technology   &   Communication  

In order to understand the origins of wireless technology, it is important to understand the meaning of electromagnetic wave. (Sakar T, et.al 2006)4 Describe it as a wave, which can travel though vacuum and space without requiring a medium of transmission. Colloquially it can be compared to sound waves. In sound wave, it requires a medium i.e. air for propagation, in stark contrast to electromagnetic wave. Therefore, a wireless radio wave is an electromagnetic wave carrying data. Ever since the emergence and discovery of electromagnetic waves, there has been an ever-present desire of us humans to achieve faster and efficient communication using the same. The authors (Sakar T, et.al 2006)5  give an accurate chronological overview of the evolution of wireless technology starting from 1858, when Bernhard Riemann toyed with the 3

 “GSM.” About Us. Accessed March 2, 2015. http://www.gsma.com/aboutus/gsm-technology/gsm. http://www.gsma.com/aboutus/gsm-technology/gsm.  Sarkar, T. K., Robert Mailloux, Arthur A. Oliner, M. Salazar-Palma, and Dipak L. Sengupta. History of Wireless. John Wiley & Sons, 2006. 5  Sarkar, T. K., Robert Mailloux, Arthur A. Oliner, M. Salazar-Palma, and Dipak L. Sengupta. History of Wireless. John Wiley & Sons, 2006.

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Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics assumption of a force travelling at the speed of light containing a charge between two finite  points. However, it i t was later withdrawn as the electromagnetic theory on which his assumption was based was marked as invalid. This later picked up by Ludwig Lorenz in 1867 in which he explained the scalar and vector potentials of the charge mathematically. However, the overarching effect of Maxwell’s theory, in 1867 that effectively states that light is an extension of electromagnetic wave. The works of inMaxwell laid the foundation of the discovery of electromagnetic waves by Heinrich Hertz 1888 through scientific experiments. Whilst Hertz was developing the theory and practicalities of Electromagnetic waves, Thomas Edison filed for  patent US0465971A6  in which he described a method transmitting signals electronically with two antennas set apart from each other by a finite distance. This was essentially the effective and  practical transmission, which was eventually superseded by Guglielmo Marconi who Fig. 1. US0465971A filed for patent GB190007777A7  in which he improved the method of wireless transmission using two specified points, which was primarily aimed at ships but later incorporated for consumer wireless communication. Since then, have been rapid advances in wireless communication; come dawn of the 70’s it reached its pinnacle when Motorola, together with Martin Cooper US39061668, invented the first mobile  phone, this was effectively called the 1G (first generation) of wireless communication. GSM (Global System for MobileAccess) Communication) and CDMA Division Multiple coming during the late(Code 80’s and early 90s’s. Having a consumer point of view, with the cellular communications being commercialized, (Theodre S, et.al 2002)9  reported that during late 2001, there were a little over 100 million phone subscribers, Figure 1: Wireless Transmission   using the first generation system and rising to 330 million using the GSM standard. This was due to ease of communication between two devices using SIM (Subscribers Identity Module). However, in contrast CDMA did not achieve consumer popularity initially, gaining a little over 100 million subscribers. In addition, the Web World Web colloquially called the “Internet” in the late 90s effectively pushed the technology towards an ever more increase in data bandwidth thereby forcing the telecoms world to incorporate a new technological standard known as WiFi, which was introduced in 1991 by  NCR, in association with AT&T. With the advancement of time, wireless communication has taken new methods of data transmission akin to cellular communication, such as WiMax. The

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 Edison, Thomas A. “Means for Transmitting Signals Electrically,” December 29, 1891. http://www.google.com/patents/US465971. 7  Guglielmo, Marconi. “Improvements in Apparatus for Wireless Telegraphy.,” April 13, 1901. http://worldw http://worldwide.espacenet.com ide.espacenet.com/publicationDetai /publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D ls/biblio?FT=D&date=19010413&D &date=19010413&DB=worldwide.es B=worldwide.espacenet.com& pacenet.com& locale=en_EP&CC=GB&NR= locale=en_EP&C C=GB&NR=190007777A&KC=A 190007777A&KC=A&ND=4 &ND=4.. 8  Cooper, Martin, Richard W. Dronsuth, Albert J. Mikulski, Jr Lynk, James J. Mikulski, John F. Mitchell, Roy a Richardson, and John H. Sangster. “Radio Telephone System,” September 16, 1975. http://worldwide.espacenet.com /publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D ls/biblio?FT=D&date=19750916& &date=19750916&DB=&locale=& DB=&locale=&CC=US&NR CC=US&NR=3 =3 http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetai 906166A&KC=A&ND=1.. 906166A&KC=A&ND=1 9  THEODOR, S, RAPPAPOR, A ANNAMALAI, R.M. BUEHRER, and W.H. TRANTER. “WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS: COMMUNICA TIONS: Past Events And A Future Perspective.” Virginia Tech, 2002. http://www.ee.oulu.fi/~kk/dt sp/tutoriaalit/Rappaport.pdf  appaport.pdf . http://www.ee.oulu.fi/~kk/dtsp/tutoriaalit/R Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics authors (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011)10  describe this as the “broadband revolution” due to the industrial revolution there has been an ever-increasing demand for media consumption and sharing amongst the society. The traditional methods of wired communication are unable to cope and cater for the bandwidth needed in today’s society, additionally, (Middleton C etl.al 2006) 11  they highlight the need for wireless technology as an increasing number of consumers are relying on ICT during their others. everyday routine forthe communication theirtechnology colleagues,asfamilies, social interaction amongst Additionally, importance ofwith wireless it provides an effortless provision of internet in conjunction with 802.11 technology WiFi standards; in combination with WiMax, it has led to creation of new vistas such as e-health and e-education within the rural population in India. According to (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011)12  e-health is the involvement of ICT and wireless technology in joining remote clinics with regional hospitals for healthcare related information and internet access, similarly, e-education is the enablement of linking rural schools and colleges to regional and national institutions, thereby bringing a cohesion of learning towards the impoverished areas. According to (Warf, 2009) 13  Telecommunications is a key component within the wireless technology sector, and its growth has been felt across various economic sectors, with particular emphasis on the financial sector. Since the early 2000, this component of wireless technology has become the primary source for transmitting financial information across the globe; be it stocks, money transfer, interbank documents amongst others, as a result an estimated $1.5 trillion moves around the globe today using this method of technology. Additionally, offshore baking is becoming more popular for the wealthy and making efficient use of tax. This directly reinforces with the earlier observation by (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011) that citizens are increasing relying on telecommunications to manage their everyday affairs. The growth of telecommunications in holistic perspective has given rise of urbanisation of cities, whereby wireless technology is responsible for traffic management, parking sensors, transportation information handling, tollbooth systems for road tax amongst others, through this technology the city space has become a densely inter-connected web of information with a single source of management. Additionally, through telecommunication, the author observes the growing trend of “teleworking” i.e. working remotely though wireless technology, without actually visiting the working location. As the number of workers use teleworking, this has had unintended consequence on public transport. This is because remote location workers are frequently travelling to various locations using public transport, transport, and the lack thereof forces the users to spill on roads, thereby causing congestion. The amalgamation of this situation has result has created a socioeconomic today’s society. As we advance towards the in 21st century, wireless technology is slowly becoming an intrinsic  part of today’s today ’s society, which has ha s sub-defined a new meaning to wireless communication, called “Internet of Things” or “I.o.T”. Authors (Gubbi, et.al 2012) 14 which according to the authors is a 10

 Gunasekaran, V, and F.C. Harmantzis. “Emerging Wireless Technologies for Developing Countries.” School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, 2007, 20. 11  Middleton, C, A Clement, G Longford, A.B Potter, and B Crow. “ICT Infrastructure as Public Infrastructure: Exploring the Benefits of Public Wireless Networks,” 2006. http://www.cwirp.org/files/TPRC_Wireless_desiderata.pdf . 12  Gunasekaran, V, and F.C. Harmantzis. “Emerging Wireless Technologies for Developing Countries.” School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, 2007, 20. 13  Warf, B. “Telecommunications.” Florida State University, 2009. 14  Jayavardhana, G, B Rajkumar, S Marusic, and M Palaniswami. “Internet of Things (IoT): A Vision, Architectural Elements, and Future Directions.” 2013 Elsevier B.V., February 24, 2014. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics collection of sensors and actuators which use the wireless internet technology for inter device communication and was established by Kevin Ashton in 1999. The IoT platform consists of 3 stages, which according to the article is comprised of a middleware which is concerned with internet connectivity, sensors and actuators which are result and object oriented, the third being the knowledge framework, comprising of tact knowledge, computational and algorithmic knowledge, Furthermore,needed givenfor theprocessing. rise of IoT , it has created several new technological standards and upcoming trend such as RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems), which essentially a short distance communication platform for miniscule devices to communicate with with each other. The author explains that using RFID technology; the microchips use wireless technology for communication, thereby acting as a electronic barcode, and are additionally comprised of active or passive RFID systems. A passive RFID uses the energy from electromagnetic wave for communication, whereas in active mode, the system is  battery powered. Increasingly, cloud computing has been identified as an upcoming trend, which has given rise to remote access and office mobility. In a recent article published by BSR 15 in May 2012, it outlines the various segments that have  been impacted and a direct correlation of economic advantage ad vantage as a result. Moving forwards, BSR claims that 6 billion cellular connections are made between people and in conjunction with the earlier correlation made by (Gunasekaran V et.al. has laid foundations scenarios. Within this scenario, using the Internet of 2011), Things,ithealthcare professionalsfor areeHealth able to monitor patient activities and additionally build forecasting scenarios, thereby, improving the overall health outlook of the patient. This observation is further reinforced by statistical figures, within which 39% of people having type-2 diabetes have seen a marked improvement in their health, revenue generation within inhome health applications using wireless technology, reached $4.4 billion by 2013, within the financial services market for mobile payment services is expected to reach $670 billion by 2015. However great technology requires great hardware which as described previously called the Internet of Things. A synergy of key s emiconductor components are required for each wireless device to work appropriately as it is designed. Recently, McKinsey & Co. in autumn of 2014 16   published a report on semiconductors, using quantitative examination of SoC (System on Chip). System on Chip is a special form of microcontroller, which has audio, video and memory  processing units, and can be used in variety of electronic applications, where compact footprint is of paramount importance and such an integral of the products, Internet since of Things. According to the report, there hasasbeen a steady demandcomponent for SoC’s related 2012, which witnessed an annual growth of 170m devices to 1bn+ devices in 2014. Additionally, during the initial phase of microcontroller manufacturing in 2012, 400 MHz and 16-bit  processors, in the present day, significant advancement in R&D has contributed towards the manufacturing of multicore processors and higher clock-speed microcontrollers, which are being infused in present day wireless communication devices such as smartphones and IoT devices.

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 “Socioeconomic Impacts of Wireless Technology | Reports,” R eports,” May 2012. http://www.bsr.org/en/ourinsights/report-view/socioeconomic-impacts-of-wireless-technology. insights/report-view/socioeconomic-impacts-of-wireless-technology. 16  Bauer, H, M Patel, and J Viera. “McKinsey on Semiconductors,” August 2014. http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/semiconductors/issue%204%20autumn%20201 4/pdfs/mosc2014_full_issue.ashx.. 4/pdfs/mosc2014_full_issue.ashx Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics However not all wireless technologies are concerned with WiFi, the report is keen to highlight the rise of low-level intercommunication standards having limited bandwidth such as Bluetooth and Zigbee due to the lower power requirement for communication and additionally, less overheads for transport protocol, whilst keeping the restrictive nature of IoT devices in view. The semiconductor industry is actively engaging in development and promotion of low power transmission which will enable the manufacturing of sensorsindustry. across the industry sectors, with amethods, special emphasis on moisture control within the agricultural The report discusses additional aspects such as security, privacy and authentication, which need to be considered whilst designing wireless communicative devices and goes on to shed light on the software development methodologies, which are needed to develop such devices. In late 90’s a software engineer was not of primary importance as one of them was hired for every 10 hardware engineers , giving an effective ratio of 1:10, however come today, the gap has narrowed significantly, giving a ratio of 1:1 or 1.5. This shows the growing need of software development, based on the consumer demand as the trend grows for procuring an ever-increasing sophisticated device, that require complex array of hardware and software systems. This reinforcement comes from the three major semiconductor companies, MediaTek, Intel and Qualcomm. MediaTek has since adapted an end-to-end approach for its OEM customers. The firm manufactures both hardware and software system in-house which decreases the time-tomarket for OEM manufacturers for bringing consumer devices to the market. One of are the “wearables”. key sectors toWearables benefit from embedded wireless technology, or IoT canthe be microelectronics described electronic objects,with which transmit medical statistical data about the human body through wireless communication. The authors (Appleboom et.al. 2013)17 discuss the potential impact of the same within eHealth or mHealth, this directly coincides with the earlier study conducted by (Gunasekaran V et.al. 2011). According to the recent study, it has shown that demand for wireless technology enabled devices has already reached 14 Million and rise exponentially to 171 million in 2016. The study suggests these devices are being increasingly used within the hospital setting on patients whereby they do not require hospitalisation however; constant monitoring is required for gathering medical data for medical analysis. In such circumstances, wearable devices are worn by the patient and are discharged. In routine intervals, using telecommunication technology, the devices transmit medical data to the hospital which then analysed by a physician. A few examples where such use could be identified could be within ECG (Electro-Cardio Gramm), BP (Blood Pressure), weight measurement and glucose levels. Upon further reflection, the wearble devices are slowly transforming into wellness devices and the and upcoming trend witness by the society. The article continues to suggest thatrecent the wellness devices as theyhas arebeen called, are primary intended to motivate an activate lifestyle as it impact a person both in physical and psychological manner. The study discusses that maintaining an active lifestyle improves the health outlook of the individual and is vital in recovery of certain treatment and medical conditions. However, this brings up the issue of privacy, data security and integrity, which is key aspect of wireless technology, which needs to be take into serious consideration. In 2013, OECD, headed  by Studdart, J 18acknowledged that data privacy, protection is becoming an ever-increasing 17

 Geoff Appelboom, Annie H. Yang. “The Promise of Wearable Activity Sensors to Define Patient Recovery.” Journal of Clinical Neuroscience : Official Journal of o f the Neurosurgical Society of Australasia, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.jocn.2013.12.003. 18  Stoddart, J. “Thirty Years After: OECD Privacy Guidelines,” 2013. http://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/49710223.pdf . Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics  problem, and serious measures must be taken for effective government of the same. In continuation, data mining tools are becoming more advanced and intelligent in terms of keyword searching, indexing of information and distributed location of storage including redundancy options. Sidelining this issue, is the matter of Big Data, which however is beyond the discussion of this paper, nevertheless it is worth mentioning here. According the report, in WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks) andofactuators are the maintosources of informationtoharvesting, addition to GPS and mobile access internet can be used track the location and activity of the user. In conjunction with the previous study connected with wearable devices, the human body can be viewed as source of information and therefore strong security data algorithm and security encryption including effective authentication systems are needed to  protect the th e information. (Roberto, D et.al. 2011) has further investigated this19. WSN according to the authors are dissected in two main areas, in terms of information storage. The first being commercial, this pertains to consumption usage, e.g. within public utility companies, data can include amount of energy, water and gas consumed by the user within a given time period. The other information is contextual and personal information, which can include pattern of usage and geolocation of the user. This information for the potential hacker can be quite harmful. In typical circumstances, the hacker attempts intercept the broadcast transmission information by tuning to the radio frequency of the transmitting device. Additionally, the similar pattern has been observed within GSM mobile phone audio conversations, commonlya known as “phone tapping”. As the Union data privacy and protection of information is becoming major concern, it has led European Commission to formulate and pass data protection law, and is subject to revisions as the technology progress over time. The directive 95/46/EC20  identifies key areas within which, the data processing organisations have to abide with relevant laws pertaining to data integrity. In summary, the directive states that data must be collected and processed for stated purpose only, and not used or manipulated in any other way for other means. Secondly, the person on whom the data is being collected, cannot be named, unless prior approval, in terms of consent has been obtained from the individual, additionally, active steps must be taken to ensure that the data is stored and access in a secure manner. Specifically, within the sphere of wireless communication, the Government of United Kingdom has also incorporated a similar legislative framework through Wireless Telegraphy Act 2006 21. Within the United Kingdom, this legislation is enforced by OFCOM (Office of Communications). The legalisation covers a broad range of communication activities, starting from the mobile operators and broadcasters, which include but not limited to band spectrum licensing, limitations of licensing, mediation and arbitration in wireless technology. At the consumer level it deals with complaints and lack of service provisions by wireless technology companies, data protection and security, amongst others. In view of the above-mentioned issues relating to privacy and data protection, is has been observed that various wireless technology and ICT companies have their own code of ethics by 19

 Di Pietro, Roberto, and Alexandre Viejo. “Location Privacy and Resilience in Wireless Sensor Networks Querying.” Computer Communications, Special Issue of Computer Communications on Information and Future Communication Security, 34, no. 3 (March 15, 2011): 515–23. doi:10.1016/j.comcom.2010.05.014. 20  “EUR-Lex - 31995L0046 - EN.” Text/html; charset=UTF-8. Official Journal L 281 , 23/11/1995 P. 0031 - 0050;. Accessed March 12, 2015. http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0046:en:HTML.. lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0046:en:HTML 21  “Wireless Telegraphy Act 2006.” Text. Legislation.gov.uk, 2006. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/36/contents.. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/36/contents Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics which they run the organisation and process the information elicited through wireless technology. For example, in the case of Verizon Wireless, which is the biggest mobile phone operator in terms of market share within the United States, its code of ethics22 . Their code of ethics outline how they operate the company, service deliverables, meeting consumer (both internal and external) expectations, actions taken if the company fails to adhere and operateand according their principles, explaining how the customer’s data expectations is handled and  processing how thetodata is stated secured. Additionally, it outlines performance of the company. As more and more internet-connected devices are manufactured with an ever-decreasing time to market for product launches, the internet is becoming a dominant factor in revenue generation and economic development, with an ever-increasing upward trend. A recent article and a factfinding study, commissioned by McKinsey Institute, the authors (Hazan et.al, 2011) 23  suggest that internet, which is the primary product of wireless technology has transformed the current generation in many ways. Their findings estimate that 2 billion users are using the internet for  personal or professional use, with a total of $8 trillion worth of information exchanged as a result and a third of the small business using internet-oriented technologies, with a sample survey conducted with 4800 SME (small medium enterprises) spanning over 12 countries. The research study conducted has shown that the internet has been accounted for 3.4% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in over 13 countries surveyed by the institute having a combined GDP output, bigger of Spain or Canada. Furthermore, their hasThe shown that the internet has perceived as anthan intrinsic value, which is quintessential forstudy users. institute found, in Germany, it is an estimated value of €13 per month / per user and rising to €20 per month / per user in the United Kingdom. In addition, growth has also added towards job recreation within the recruitment sector, thereby driving the sector forwards, in line with other sectors. It has been argued that the growth of internet has led to significant decline of jobs in some of the countries; however, the study finds that it has been contrasted with an upward trend in job creation. Over the last decade, the statistical figures show that 1.2 million jobs have been created with an estimated half a million of them being destroyed concerning the web technologies with a survey conducted with 4800 SME’s. This on an average creates 2.4 jobs for each of the terminated job. The impact of the internet and its associated benefits has also been felt across two other sectors. One of the ways, in which companies can keep their running costs to a minimum, is my eliminating paper use and using web-related technologies and by digitising data. Given the rise of the internet, it has led to increasing number of users shopping online. Therefore, companies can now further target market, and reach in increased user base by selling online. As the product is not sold in physical stores, they can c an afford to keep the price co competitive. mpetitive. Looking back at the SME’s and their growth attributed towards web technologies, it has improved customer services and deliverables as a whole. Overall, the SLA (Service Level Agreement) between customers has been significantly which has led to greater expectation and overall quality assurance amongst the customers. The customers can both be internal or external customers. Presently, companies have been using IM (Instant Messaging) and emails as the 22

 “Verizon Wireless : Code of Conduct,” 2014. http://www.verizon.com/about/sites/default/files/Verizon-Code-ofConduct.pdf . 23  Hazan, E, J Bughin, M Chui, J Manyika, and M.P. Rausas. “Internet Matters: The Net’s Sweeping Impact on Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity | McKinsey & Company,” May 2011. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics  primary platform for delivering customer services within the business sector, thereby reducing call time and average wait time for each query to be answered. According to (Chui et.al. 2013) 24   business are beginning to use CRM (Customer Relationship Marketing) software, which are web-enabled, and additionally, using ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) for effective customer service and product planning, in addition to effective organisational control. The study alsoinstitute found that Public Relations is the most companies, used sector which where the web-centric is used. The conducted a survey in various intentiontechnology of asking about the extent of social internet technologies are used in their everyday task. Based on the responses, market plan development, managing sales and marketing activities are the three main tasks where the internet is used significantly to manage workflows. Additionally, the respondents were asked, in which way the internet has and web-centric technology affected their everyday lives. Surprisingly, the findings indicate, that using the internet, it has led to an enlightenment of knowledge, reduction in communication expenditure and lower travelling expenditure. The coming methodology aspect of this paper, this will be reinforced by empirical analysis. Government around the world have also benefited from the internet. In continuation of the  previous study, McKinsey have shown, government are starting to implement online tax services, in addition to digitising municipal services, e-visa and issue of driver licences are also  becoming common practice for various governments. Having discussed the technological and economic aspects of wireless technology, it is imperative to understand the implications same withinintroduce sociological and demographical context. The authors (Wrench, et.al. 2007)25of   inthe their article, a definition called CMC (computer mediated communication) which essentially, is exchange of information using the computer as a medium through the internet, however the authors argue, that CMC is slightly different from other communication methods, as the speed of information exchange and its feedback felt are the major differentiation factors. In continuation, this is not a substitution for face-to-face interactions, due to the limitation of audio-visual exchange. The article continues to suggest, through (Chenault, 1998) that usually, CMC is the initial point of interaction between two individuals, which then gradually developed to a physical face-to-face interaction. This is reinforced by empirical studies, which have shown that 60.7% of relationships developed initially from CMC, with 30% resulting in physical contact, with common mediums being chatrooms, IRC (Internet Relay chat) and IM (Instant Messaging). Additionally, the article states that women are more likely to initiate a relationship through CMC rather than men. However, it should be noted that CMC is directly related to computer self-efficacy, which according to the article is the perceived ability of the individual to use computers in information technology, which was researched with various people. From the research conducted, it showed that “there is a positive relationship between Internet self-efficacy and social=informational outcome expectancy, Internet experience, and Internet use. The researchers further found a negative relationship between Internet self-efficacy and Internet stress and self-disparagement ”

24

 Chui, M, M Dewhurst, and L Pollak. “Transforming the Business through Social Tools | McKinsey & Company,” 2013. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/transforming_the_business_through_social_tools. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/transforming_the_business_through_social_tools. 25  Jason S. Wrench and Narissra M. Punyanunt-Carter, “The Relationship between Computer-MediatedCommunication Competence, Apprehension, Self-Efficacy, Perceived Confidence, and Social Presence,” Southern Communication Journal 72, no. 4 (November 12, 2007): 355–78, doi:10.1080/10417940701667696. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics However another key element of “presence” is vital towards establishing CMC and a virtual environment. Presence is conceptualisation of working within a virtual environment setting. Amongst the various factors that contribute towards establishing presence, one of them is the “distraction factor” with an inverse correlation towards being aloof in physical reality and working in online presence.

This directly brings the the factor factor of “technoference” which according to the the authors (Brandon 26 et.al. 2015)  is the amount of intrusion caused by technology, in this case, wireless technology in everyday lives of people. In order to get a quantitative analysis to determine the impact of the same, the authors conducted a research. According to the research, it was concluded that overall 91% of US people admitted to owning a mobile phone, comprising of, and 81% of adults within the age group of 25-34 used a smartphone. Additionally, 50% of the parents having the ownership of a tablet computer, and additionally, 72% of the overall research base people created and using their social media profile. This directly reinforces the inverse correlation by authors (Wrench, et.al. 2007). Furthermore, as the use of wireless technology and communication continues to rise, particularly amongst the upcoming generation, technoference seems to be  playing an integral role in people’s lives. Additionally, this is having a significant impact on relationships with people both personal and professional. The recent study by authors (Leggett, 27

et.al, from the University Queensland, considers a of neuropsychological aspect2014) within  technoference. It has of been suggested, Australia, that the development human brains is wired in such the way, that it is capable of understanding adjacent surroundings, assessing each information according to its merit, and forming social interactions together with forming inter personal relationships. This in effect leads to, forming a presence online, which was earlier suggested by (Chenault, 1998). Moving forwards, the study suggests, with the increased usage of internet, which in effect is wireless communication exchange; it has beginning to blur lines between online and physical reality, which directly affects the couple, and family interpersonal relationships. In continuation, the authors suggest that increased use of online communication, including mobile phone usage and social media interaction alters the couple and family’s relationship in very subtle ways, and in my occasions, they are not aware of how it has changed them as a whole. Whilst, according to the study there are other contributing factors for technoference, television has been cited as the most common associated influential factor in couple’s relationship towards wireless technology. It has been reported that couples and families watching TV together leads to  positive correlation of interaction amongst couples cou ples whilst laptop use has quite the opposite effect and creates a distance between couples and families. In conclusion, the study finds that people are constantly altering their behaviour based on their use of technology, and this in effect creates a positive or negative correlation in their brains and associate relationships as such. If two individuals, be it couple or friends or family members seem to have using the technology in a mutually consented, it builds a common bond between them, due to the neuropsychological

26

 Brandon T. McDaniel and Sarah M. Coyne, “‘Technoference’: The Interference of Technology in Couple Relationships and Implications for Women’s Personal and Relational Well-Being,” Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 2014, No Pagination Specified, doi:10.1037/ppm0000065. 27  Christina Leggett and Pieter Rossouw, “The Impact of Technology Use on Couple Relationships: A  Neuropsychological Perspective,” International Journal of Neuropsychotherapy 2, no. 1 (January 1, 2014): 44–99, doi:10.12744/ijnpt.2014.0044-0099. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics tendencies in our brain, otherwise it has the opposite effect. Another drawback of technoference is that it creates a “spill-over” between professional and personal life, this theory has been discussed by (Brandon et.al. 2015) as they state that contestant on technology especially within mobile phones, causes blurring of boundaries within the two enjoinments and often causes conflict. (Leggett, et.al, 2014) has reinforced rein forced this originally. The continues suggest thatIt technoference alsowithin affectsthe thestudy sleepthat patterns had habits of an avid study user of wirelesstotechnology. has been shown, individuals routinely check their mobile phones at some intervals during the night, and keep technology devices switched on, when this becomes a regular habit, it begins to disrupt the sleep pattern of that individual, and additionally has an effect on the neuropsychological area within the brain. Another neuropsychological problem with this type of technology is that it creates an emotional attachment towards the device, which the person is using. Within the study, it has been reported  by several authors that persons begin to form strong emotional connections with their mobile devices and it evokes satisfaction and gratification whenever they use such devices. Some of the feelings which the person can feel is being loved and additionally, being a task organiser for the user, due to its multifunction capabilities. However, in contrast there has been a positive result due to wireless technology as well. According to (Brandon et.al. 2015)28  their study suggests that technology has had a positive effect on within relationships with only 18% indicating otherwise. Additionally, it has suggested that technology enables people to beother. “connected” with each other and can increase the commitment and satisfaction with each

Methodology As this paper focuses on impact of wireless technology, the methodology takes inspiration from Diamond Popper’s29  foresight planning methods. A combination of research methods which include, KCT (Key Critical Technologies), SWOT (Strengths Weakness Opportunities and Threats), STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental/Ecological, Political and Value-based issues) with the last option of SCN (Scenarios) which would include the future of wireless technology within the next 20 years.

Figure 2: Methodology Mapping  28

 McDaniel, Brandon T., and Sarah M. Coyne. “‘Technoference’: The Interference of Technology in Couple Relationships and Implications Figure 3: Methodology Mapping  for Women’s Personal and Relational Well-Being.” Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 2014, No Pagination Specified. doi:10.1037/ppm0000065. 29  Popper, R. (2008) Foresight Methodology, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and Popper, R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, El gar, Cheltenham, pp. 44-88. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Critical Technologies The term critical technologies, as described by United Nations Industrial Development Program30  in association with Steven W. Popper is a technology which needs to withstand the  political interference together with a special focus on R&D process ranging from development through to commercialisation. Secondly, the technology must be clearly distinguishable from other technologies, in such a manner that makes it obvious, additionally; care must be taken to avoid mixing non-critical technologies whilst aggregating. Finally, the technology that deems to satisfy the above-mentioned criteria must be reproducible; its reconstruction must be publicly accessible with a transparent process. Having identified the standards for critical technology, this method has been applied to wireless technology and together with the literature review; it has  been observed that WSN (Wireless Sensor Network) and Cellular Communications are one of the critical technological elements within wireless technologies. Cellular Communication Cellular Communication is a collection of wireless technology standards incorporating GSM, GPRS, 3G, the present day 4G and the upcoming 5G 31. Based on the literature review, it is evident that the society is increasingly becoming dependant on this technology. Furthermore, telecommunication is the single most factor, which is  providing the fastest bandwidth per customer when viewed across the digital divide and can be reproduced on both low and high level communications, namely IoT’s and the internet. Secondly, telecommunication is one of the most commercialised technology in the present market and has the most R&D input and output than other technological standards such as ZigBee etc... Additionally, as the technology progresses, the lifecycle of

Figure 4: Semiconductor Prices 

 products incorporating this technology  becomes shorter. This in effect is closed linked to technology push and pull within wireless. Technology push is considered

Figure 5: Semiconductor Roadmap

30

 United Nations, “Critical Technologies,” 2004, http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/import/16961_CriticalTechnologies.pdf. 31  Haider, F, Y Yang, Y Dongfeng, and H Aggoune. “Cellular Architecture and Key Technologies for 5G Wireless Communication Networks,” February 2014. http://cms.comsoc.org/SiteGen/Uploads/Public/Docs_TC_5GMWI/Cellular_Architecture_and_Key.pdf . Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics a part of the business scenario whereby the innovation is delivered through R&D process, in  juxtaposition, demand-pull (technology) innovation delivered according to market requirements. The key to both demand-pull and technology push invariably lies with the technological advancements within the semiconductor manufacturing. The above-mentioned exhibit identifies key the milestones within semiconductor  packaging. With each milestone ach ieved over achieved years, theachieved feature size of thethe components have 32 gotten smaller and cheaper. In addition, the recent study conducted by Parpala , 2014, commissioned by the Semiconductor Association exhibits the falling price of semiconductor components, since the 1990’s to 2006. Additionally, from year 2000 to 2006, the price of semiconductor has fallen by almost 50%. This in return is making the lifecycle of telecommunication products shorter and making them more affordable. In particular, this trend can be observed within the developing countries where the falling telecoms product prices have had a positive impact on people’s purchasing power, this in lieu drives the economy forwards thereby adding to GDP and fuels the demand pull of the same. Garbacz and Thompson Jr 33  observe that due to regularisation of telecommunication has given rise to privatisation within the sector, this has in effect given rise to competition amongst manufacturers and mobile operators 34  with the creation of MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). This trend has been observed within the United Kingdom (gifgaff, virgin mobile, TalkTalk mobile, Lyca mobile) and the United Mobile, create Cricketdirect Wireless) Wireless ) to namewith a few. few. In combination of attractive networkStates tariffs,(Boost the MVNO’s competition mainstream network operators to create competition and value for end users, thereby creating a demand-pull, as consumers strive for an ever-increasing quest for mobile internet  bandwidth and always on connectivity.  Notwithstanding, combined with cheap BOM (Bill of Materials), there is an ever-increasing influx of cellular products within the consumer market. The exhibit take from the recent facts published by the ITU35  at the beginning of 2014, it can be deduced that number of active mobile broadband connections have risen to 84% within the developed countries, which is a rise of more than 60% starting Figure 6: ITU Figures   2007. Additionally, within the developing countries, a rise of 21% increased per 100 inhabitants using mobile broadband can be seen. Furthermore, the article believes that 2.3 billion active mobile subscribers will be using the mobile broadband at the latter end of 2014, which approximately five as many subscribers as they were few years ago. In addition, it has been estimated estimated that mobile communication will will  penetrate 90% of the developing countries in contrast with above cent percent average in developed nations. 32

 Parpala, M. “The U.S. U. S. Semiconductor Industry: Growing Our Economy Through Innovation,” August 2014. http://go.semiconductors.org/growing-our-economy-through-innovation.. http://go.semiconductors.org/growing-our-economy-through-innovation 33  Garbacz, Christopher, and Herbert G. Thompson Jr. “Demand for Telecommunication Services in Developing D eveloping Countries.” Telecommunications Policy 31, no. 5 (June 2007): 276–89. doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2007.03.007. 34  OECD. OECD Communications Outlook 2013. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2013. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/comms_outlook-2013-en. 35  “The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures.” ITU. Accessed A ccessed March 14, 2015. http://www.itu.int/en/ITUD/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx.. D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics  

Figure 7: Key ICT Indicators

Figure 8: Google Trend: Regional Interest  

Additionally, the figure above, taken from the OCED36  seems to reconfirm the earlier claims by the ITU in relation to over cent  percent penetration of cellular connectivity within developing countries. The exhibit suggests, Finland having the most mobile data subscriptions, amounting to 122.4% in  juxtaposition, the United States has no fixed mobile data subscription but has 100% standard mobile phone subscription. A recent search in Google Trends was conducted with keyword: wireless technology and it has been revealed that the most interest came from the developing countries, which include India, Singapore and Philippines; this again coincides with the penetration and active mobile user base as reported earlier.

Wireless Sensor Networks Figure 9: Google Trends: Keyword: Internet of Things

WSN is a collection of interconnected sensors and actuators, which use wireless communication technology for transmission of data, such as 36

 OECD: Key ICT Indicators. http://www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/1.2-OECD-WiredWirelessBB-2014-06.xls, http://www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/1.2-OECD-WiredWirelessBB-2014-06.xls, th Accessed: 14  march 2015 Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ Figure 10: Google Trends: Keyword: Internet of Things  

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics IPv6LowPAN and RFID are some common examples of low-level connectivity between devices. It is important to differentiate them with regular products. WSN devices are severely restricted in communication due to their feature size geolocation and operational requirements make is unfeasible for interdependent communication. Instead, they rely on middleware and top-level hardware for internet communication. Colloquially they are called I.o.T (Internet of Things). This the observed second key technology element, which comprises the Google wirelessTrends, communication area. It canis be from the recent analysis conducted from with keywords: Internet of Things, the term has gained significant traction starting from the latter half 2011 through to the present day. This is mainly attributed to the advancement of low level communication standards which have enabled the I.o.T to be incorporated within the wireless communication arena. This upward trend has been reconfirmed by (Rajkumar et.al. 2014)37  who discuss the value proposition  presented by this. Several service sectors have exhibited a need for sensing equipment with wireless capability, for example within healthcare, transportation, logistics etc.. As previously mentioned within the literature review, using MEMS technology such realisations would not have been possible if it were not for I.o.T, which are in fact a critical bridge between mainstream communication devices and sensors, which provide real-time data to these devices. In continuation, the adjacent exhibit taken from the previous article, and additionally cited by Gartner 2012 Hype Cycle of emerging technologies. This directly coincides with the results obtained from Google Trends, this again reinforces the notion of I.o.T is starting to emerge as a major trend within wireless technology in more than 10 years’ time which is estimated to be 2022. If this information is correlated to Integrated Circuit packaging exhibit by (Parpala, 2014) on page 25, the lithography and features size of the I.o.T is getting smaller, this will give rise to an influx of sensors, M2M (Machine-to-Machine) processors, and actuator systems. In fact, TCS (Tata Consultancy services)38 have even gone forwards and stated the I.o.T is all set to become the Internet of Everything, this again highlights that this is a critical technology, which lies at the heart of wireless communication. The figures obtained from their whitepaper suggest a dramatic increase in temporary and permanently inter-connected devices using the internet to transmit

Figure 9: IoT Vision 

37

 Jayavardhana, G, B Rajkumar, S Marusic, and M Palaniswami. “Internet of Things (IoT): A Vision, Architectural Elements, and Future Directions.” 2013 Elsevier B.V., February 24, 2014. 38  Jalali, S, and S Arora. “Technology Review and Trends in M2M Communication.” TATA Consultancy Services, 2012. http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/White%20Papers/HighTech_Whitepaper_Technology_Review_Tren ds_M2M_Communication_0212-1.pdf . Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics information. In 2010, according to the whitepaper, there were 15 billion permanently interconnected devices, while in contrast there were 50 billion temporary inter-connected devices using the internet. However ten years later, in 2020, it has been predicted that the volume of I.o.T devices is said to double, with more than 30 billion permanent and 200 billion temporary interconnected devices. This effectively means that in 20 years, the temporary device market has grown fourbeen times with 20intimes the volume as in previous Additionally, there has a annually 100% increase permanent devices as the well. Based 20 on years. this information it reinforces the notion, that this technology plays a key part in push-pull market strategy, with the demand-pull figures reflecting the same. The consumers are moving towards and always-onalways-connected society, which would not have been possible without the I.o.T. (Tiwari, 2014) has observed another direct correlation of this statement39  in his recent study submitted to MarketWatch he expects the total sales generated by I.o.T’s alone would be $196 billion USD by  year 2020. Upon computation, when combined with figures by TCS equates to $6.53 USD [  ] 

in revenue generated by permanently connected devices and $0.98 USD [



], thereby supporting



the always-on notion. Furthermore, the SWSN (Semiconductor Wireless Sensor Networks), which as identified by the article are key enablers of I.o.T, have also added to the revenue growth of I.o.T, which are expected to reach $12 billion in year 2020, an estimated 9 billion devices by 2020. This is due to the demand-pull created for smartphone applications, which rely on WSN, for example, mobile phone satnav, fitness sensorsMicrosoft, as those heavily manufactured and rely on by GPSFitBit and body sensors for operation. I.o.T is also having a major impact on healthcare services as sensors as  beginning to be deployed within a hospital setting, the literature review suggests that instead of hospitalisation,  patients are wear sensors which can monitor their vital signs thereby saving time and cost. Having stated the same, the numerical data obtained from Statista in 201540 shows sales revenue of $0.17m in 2014 of I.o.T. within the United States, Figure 10: Global Wearable Traffic  

rising to 1.12m in 2015, representing a rise 0.42m of sales revenue. Additionally, it has been forecasted that sales revenue will rise to 4.5m USD in 2018, representing a growth of $3.38m beginning 2015. Based on the evidence it can be deduced that I.o.T is creating a demand-pull within the healthcare industry. The demand-pull does not only affect the healthcare sector, but also the wearable devices consisting of I.o.T is also generating significant demand for internet bandwidth, the mind boggling figures shown below give an idea

39

 Tiwari, P. “IoT Market Research Reports: Technology, Application, M2M & Semiconductor Wireless Sensor Internet of Things 2014 Analysis and 2020 Forecasts.” MarketWatch. Accessed March 15, 2015. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iot-market-research-reports-technology-application-m2m-semiconductorwireless-sensor-internet-of-things-2014-analysis-and-2020-forecasts-2014-05-28. 40  “Global Telehealth Market Size 2013-2018 | Statistic.” Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/ . Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics of the field in which the society is playing. The data is represented in petabytes (PB). 1PB =   1.048 10   GB (gigabytes), therefore, in in 2014, 15 petabytes or 1.57 10 GB of internet  bandwidth was consumer by wearable devices, thereby attributing to demand-pull scenario. It has been forecasted that such a trend will rise exponentially to 277PB or 2.9 10 GB in 2019. Consequentially, in order to meet such a staggering demand for consumption, wireless technology cellular is beingstandards pushed towards the current demandcreating througha LTE, other high  bandwidth such as to themeet upcoming 5G, thereby circleand of innovation. Based on the the KCT (Key Critical Technology) and Technology push-pull strategy, it is clear, that the future of the wireless communication lies at the heart of WSN and the Internet, which act as key enablers, with major technological trends, as consumers move towards a virtual society.

STEEPV Based on the Handbook of Foresight Planning 41  (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental/Ecological, Political and Value-based issues) is a key analysis conducted within wireless technology which can identify the future trends, developments and innovations within the same. Social The impact of wireless technology has been felt across the social sector, affecting the lives of individuals in many different ways, this begins with analysing the demographics of the population using the technology. Recently Pew Research42  has shown the differences in demographics using the internet or wireless technology vary significantly. According to the research, for every five senior persons within the United States, one of them claims not to use the internet, despite knowing the technology operation. These categories of persons belong to the lower earning category comprising of $30,000 or below annual income. Figure 11 11:Adult Digital Gadget Differences Ownership  The primary reason for the persons not using the internet is that they do not find the technology relevant or useful in their lives. The demographic data has shown that senior citizens within the United States are using the wireless technology on a frequent basis. The study from Pew Research in 2013 43 has shown that 77% of them are using mobile phones, as compared with 69% in 2012, giving a rise of 8% annual increase. In contrast, according to the same article, it has suggested that the after 75 years, the wireless technology usage within senior citizens starts to decline, is consistent with slow degradation of comprehension by the human brain as in the old age.

41

 Eurofund. “Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound.” Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight. 42  Zickuhr, Kathryn, and Aaron Smith. S mith. “Digital Di Differences.” fferences.” Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differences/ http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differences/.. 43  Smith, Aaron. “Older Adults and Technology Use.” Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/04/03/older-adults-and-technology-use/. http://www.pewi nternet.org/2014/04/03/older-adults-and-technology-use/. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics The second social aspect that can be considered is how people use wireless technology for communication during their everyday lives. The study 44  shows almost 50% of young adults under 25 years old use a mobile phone while eating, whilst only 27% of over 25 years old use their phones while eating. This shows that the young population is using the technology on a more frequent basis tying in with earlier results obtained from literature review and previous datasets, society progress virtually. However,asantheinteresting trend can be identified by observing the statistic on fig.1. On a 6-year average, it can be observed, that the number of mobile phone owners are continuing to rise, starting from 73% to 88%, thereby remaining relatively stable with a continuing upward trend. Wilson Electronics45  conducted another demographic research regarding the number of mobile  phone holders, with Russia being at the top most level having 1.3 mobile phones per customer amounting to 187million, which According to Neilson46 accounts for 51% of the population. This fact shows that people are using wireless communication as a means of social interaction. Furthermore, to reiterate the notion always-on-always-connected society, within the literature review and the KCT methodology, if the figure 1 facts regarding the desktop usage is observed, the trend is declining. This effectively shows that people are increasingly becoming more mobile in terms of professional and personal activities, which has been previously introduced in the literature review. Technological Technology is the second element within STEEPV analysis. Based on the journal of foresight, as  previously mentioned Journal of foresight by Eurofund47  this element analyses the current and future trend in wireless technology, which is essentially divided in aspects, including hardware and software development, manufacturing process together with bandwidth capability for serving the future needs of the society and information exchange. Within this scenario, it is imperative to understand the Moore’s Law, which is the so-called Bible of current and future technology  progression. Gordon Moore who is the co-founder of Intel Inc. invented this law, states; the number of transistors per square inch within an Integrated Circuit (IC) will double each year. Subsequently, based on the literature review, and Case Technologies, it can be deduced that such a trend has been gradually progressing, however recently as the packing density of transistors within microprocessors has decreased, the data availability has increased by a significant amount. From the literature review and KCL it can be see, technologies such as 3G and 4G with upcoming 5G are providing faster data bandwidth, whilst the feature size occupied by the microprocessor has not changed significantly. As the wireless technology progresses puts emphasis on portability, which can be seen from WSN and mobile and smartphones, one of the key emphasis is on low power based technologies within the wireless communication. The Internet of Things, which is acting as a key enabler for low power transmission, has expedited

44

 Grace, B. “The Demographics of Cell Phone Usage!” Top Mobile Trends. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://topmobiletrends.com/demographics-cell-phone-usage/. 45  Grace, B. “The Demographics of Cell Phone Usage!” Top Mobile Trends. Accessed March 17, 2015. http://topmobiletrends.com/demographics-cell-phone-usage/. 46  Nielsen Holdings, ed. “The Mobile Consumer: A Global Snapshot: 2013,” 2013. http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/uk/en/documents/Mobile-Consumer-Report-2013.pdf. 47  Eurofund. “Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound.” Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight.. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics the development of new low power transmission standards, such as 6LowPAN and ZigBee which are a part of WSN. Both of these low power technologies operate at higher frequencies, and utilise minimal power consumption for data transmission amongst the I.o.T. 6LoWPAN48  [IP version 6 Low Power Personal Area Network] runs on PHY (Physical layer) using IPv6 (Internet Protocol) 802.154 RF range as formulated by the Internet Engineering Task Force. ZigBee on other hand, whilst quite similar to 6LoWPAN differs in networking operation stack layer. Rather than using the PHY, which is lowest level communication which doesn’t require a header within network communications stack, it uses MAC (Media Access Control) layer, which is higher than PHY, which has its disadvantages, as it needs complex gateway for communication. However, both communication standards are inter-operable. Another key technology is Nanotechnology within Wireless Communications. Nanotechnology is the production of component structures, which have a feature size ranging from 1-100nm, which spans across Physics, Chemistry and Biology. As the technology progresses further, in accordance to Moore’s Law, the feature size of components needs to become smaller thereby creating a requirement for nanotechnology to be incorporated within wireless components.  Nanotechnology solves two key purposes. The first being operable using low power devices, i.e. I.o.T. and secondly being able to transmit data actively or passively such as in RFID (Radio Frequency Identification Devices) using high frequency. The observatoryNANO49  has in their article have stated that the current communication technologies are unable to cope with the demands in data  bandwidth and that molecular solution needs to be found, this technology will enable development smaller, cheaper and fast devices in data transmission. Moving forwards, this has effectively led to development in 22nm technology currently used by Intel SOC (System on Chip) microprocessors, which are used within the wireless communications50. Figure 12: Extended CMOS  

Additionally, the article states this technology can be used in high frequency data transmission ranging from 2-50 GHz and in future providing up to 100GHz, using NEMS (Graphene nanoelectromechanical), which essentially are devices operating with combination of electro mechanics on a nano meter scale. This again is used as reference point 48

 Sarto, J. “ZigBee VS. 6LoWPAN for Sensor Networks.” LSR Research. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.lsr.com/white-papers/zigbee-vs-6lowpan-for-sensor-networks. 49  ObservatoryNANO [EU Commission]. “Nanotechnology for Wireless Communications,” 2011. http://www.nanopinion.eu/sites/default/files/briefing_no.25_nanotechnology_for_wireless_communications.pdf . 50  “Intel® 22 Nm Technology.” Intel. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/siliconinnovations/intel-22nm-technology.html?track=1&id=f48ca76b-2d82-4cf3-a9a12011abcca345&type=PER&val=&orderId=&valueCurrency=&promoCode=&ref=http://www.google.com/url%3Fs a=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CDAQFjAD&ei=PPQKVeq3BYPPaKSYgLAE&usg=AFQjCN HZCgYKrHCG7kUEh6s3gqIe191VMg&bvm=bv.88528373,d.ZWU.. HZCgYKrHCG7kUEh6s3gqIe191VMg&bvm=bv.88528373,d.ZWU Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ Figure13: 12:Extended ExtendedCMOS  CMOS   Figure

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics within MIMO (Multiple Input and Multiple Output) and 5GHz WiFi 802.11ac transmission, thermo-electric charge devices and PCM (Phase Change Modulation) platforms51. Without nanotechnology, it would not have been possible, this has also given rise to Nano sensors, which are used in wearable devices presently and based on previous literature review in conjunction with methodology are the future of nanotechnology implementation. It has been estimated that nanotechnology is expected to add just under €100 billion in 2015. With advancements made within communication standards, nanotechnology is increasingly  being used within CMOS (Complementary, Metal-Oxide Semiconductor), which is used manufacturing of Integrated Circuits using FET (Field Effect Transistors). According to the latest report by ITRS52 the semiconductor industry has been moving towards Extended CMOS, using  More and Moore technology using integration of analog functions within CMOS53  commonly known as mixed signal. ITRS suggests that the implementation implementation of mixed mixed signals together with existing CMOS element within information processing are pushing towards extending the limits and functionality of the same. Environment

Environment is an important but overlooked factor within technological area. Nevertheless, it is imperative to analyse the impact to understand the future benefits and issue why may arise. As wireless technology primarily consists of EMW (Electromagnetic Waves) which emit radiation, which affects the environment in terms of   emissions and creates Green House effect, thereby contributing to global warming. Additionally, the impact of this technology on humans should also be taken into consideration. Recently BSR research in association with CITA Wireless Association54 examined the effects of wireless on the natural environment. Due to the combination of factors including push-pull, stated previously within this paper, an increasing number of people are working remotely, this in effect increases their movement this in turn increases transportation thereby adding to    emissions, which is estimated to be forty percent for total emission in USA as of late 2011. This trend has further been citied by The Guardian55, in which it was reported that The Centre for Energy-Efficient Telecommunications estimated around 30 megatons of carbon emissions have  been added due to wireless technology between 2012 to 2015, which is equal vent of adding

51

 Crowford, S. “Nanotechnology Introduction Series: Communications.” The Future of Human Evolution. Accessed http://futurehumanevolution.com/nanotechnology-introduction-series-communications.. March 19, 2015. http://futurehumanevolution.com/nanotechnology-introduction-series-communications 52  “International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors : 2013: Emerging Research Devices Summary.” 2013, ITRS, 2013. http://www.itrs.net/ITRS%2019992014%20Mtgs,%20Presentations%20&%20Links/2013ITRS/2013Chapters/2013ERD_Summary.pdf . 53  XFab. “What Is ‘More than Moore’?” Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.xfab.com/technology/more-thanmoore/what-is-more-than-moore/.. moore/what-is-more-than-moore/ 54  “Wireless and the Environment: A Review of Opportunities and Challenges | Reports.” Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.bsr.org/en/our-insights/report-view/wireless-and-the-environment-a-review-of-opportunities-andchallenges.. challenges 55  Newstead, Stuart, and Howard Williams. “Constant Access to Wireless Networks Has an Environmental Cost.” The Guardian. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/wireless-networksenvironmental-costs.. environmental-costs Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics 4.9m cars on the street. Furthermore, GSM Association56 estimates the energy consumption is to rise by 51% by year 2020. This is directly related to emerging developments in low power technology as discussed previously due in efforts to decrease the energy consumption and low the carbon footprint within the devices and their subsequent operation. GSM Association has suggested using solar power for base stations could reduce the carbon emissions 4,580 Kg every additional saving ofoptions 649 Kgarebyremoved eliminating diesel generators,by this however comesyear at awith priceanwhereby redundancy in case of  power failure. Within the transportation sector, BSR has suggested fleet management for heavy h eavy good transportation using wireless technology, which is based on location-based systems such as GPS and M2M technology. It has been estimated potentially 36 metric tonnes if carbon emissions could be saved within United States alone, in addition wireless technology can give 360 million metric tonnes of carbon emissions using “two-way” telecommunication using the I.o.T. Due to the increase in global population, from 7 to an estimated 9 billion by year 2050, the  pressure on agriculture is ever more essential. Therefore, within the agricultural setting, remote sensors can be used for crop monitoring and effective planning. By implanting remote monitoring sensors using WSN together with low power saving features, approximately 11-20% of water resources could be conserved. This bring up an important of waste disposal and end of life options regarding discarded wireless products. The Guardian 57 has suggested that most of the electronic waste, sub constituting wireless products is being dumped in developing countries, with an estimated 250,000 tonnes of waste being generated out of EU alone was shipped last to African and Asian regions. One way of curbing the disposal is encouraging recycling by using biodegradable components. However, waste disposal and management remains a clear problem as of today. Human being have also been exposed to both positive and negative effects of electromagnetic radiation. The jury is

year

currently out, debating the potential damaging impact on health. Recently the United Nations5859  conducted a research into the effects of electromagnetic waves on human body, the results obtained were inconclusive and no positive correlation could be found. Economic Figure 14: Globalisation and Wireless Communication  

56

 GSM Association. “Environmental Impact of Mobile Communications Networks.” Mobile Technology, Health and the Environment. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wpcontent/uploads/2012/04/environmobilenetworks.pdf . 57  Vidal, John. “Toxic ‘E-Waste’ Dumped in Poor Nations, Says United Nations.” The Guardian. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/14/toxic-ewaste-illegal-dumping-developingcountries.. countries 58  “WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health: Mobile Phones.” WHO. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs193/en/ http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs193/en/.. 59  “WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health.” WHO. Accessed March 19, 2015. http://www.who.int/pehemf/publications/facts/fs304/en/.. emf/publications/facts/fs304/en/ Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics In addition to the statistics laid out previously within this paper, this aspect will analyse the overall GDP contribution and globalisation of wireless technology 60. Wireless technology has influenced the world economy in far-fetched ways, bringing people and technology ever so close to each other generating an even bigger value61. It has been estimated by Cisco that a turnover of $14.4tr over the next decade would be generated by this technology. Within the financial sector, wireless communication has broughtFast financial services together, with paymentcould methods such as SWIFT, BACS, NFC (contactless), Payments amongst others; a payment be made at any point in the world and could transacted within days if not hours. In the last few years, I.o.T and low power technologies have made significant advancements within POS (Point of Sale) which has led ePOS, which is a mobile POS with a cellular capability. Therefore, by internet  payment methods together with ePOS systems, wireless technology has given the rise to ecommerce, with the evidence covered within previous methodologies, Juniper Research 62 states that e shopping outlets such has Alibaba, eBay and Amazon have accounted for 20% global  business to consumer transactions, with US retailer generating $10.4bn in 2013 alone. This further reinforces the trend of an ever-progressing virtual society as the influx and mobile  penetration of wireless technology continues to grow. ITU in their report published in 2013,63  have claimed the global penetration of wireless technology has reached 96% to almost 7 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide, which effectively means almost each person having a cellular device. The impact of the penetration can be felt in the overall GDP, which was explored by 64

GSM Association. Based on the report   $2 tn (trillion) has been generated by wireless technology and rising to an estimated $2.9tn in 2020. It is expected that United States would be generating $1.4bn by 2020, in addition to $576bn of income in smartphone applications and advertising. Having observed the statistical data, this directly reflects a paradigm shift in today’s and future society as it moves towards virtualisation. The demand-pull created by consumer is staggering, which has reflected in technology push as previously mentioned within earlier methodologies. It can be effectively said, that technology-push is playing a “catch up” game in order to meet the current and future consumer demand. In addition, the internet penetration within first world countries will have reached 84% with third world countries increasing up to 21% in 2014, with Africa making steady gains within this arena from 2% in 2010 to 20% 2014. This again is attributed to cheaper wireless products, together with push, and pull demand created by consumers using the internet. Another emerging trend of wearable technology can be seen as a significant contributor to the annual GDP. Considering the revenue of Telehealth, Statista reports a significant sales revenue is expected to  be achieved in years to come, estimating to be 4.5 billion65dollars by year 2018, 2018 , whilst rising from 1.15 billion dollars in 2015, representing an increase of  3.35 billion dollars. The upward trend

60

 Eurofund. “Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound.” Accessed March 17, 2015. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight.. http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight 61  Accenture. “Accenture Technology Vision 2014.” Accenture, 2014. http://www.accenture.com/microsites/ittechnology-trends-2014/Pages/tech-vision-report.aspx.. technology-trends-2014/Pages/tech-vision-report.aspx 62  Holden, Windsor. “Paying the Digital Way,” June 2014. http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewwhitepaper.php?id=762&whitepaper=268.. http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewwhitepaper.php?id=762&whitepaper=268 63  “The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures.” ITU. Accessed A ccessed March 14, 2015. http://www.itu.int/en/ITUD/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx.. D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx 64 http://gsmamobileeconomyeurope.com/..  “The Mobile Economy 2014.” GSMA, 2014. http://gsmamobileeconomyeurope.com/ 65  “Global Telehealth Market Size 2013-2018 | Statistic.” Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/.. http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/ Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics wireless technology towards revenue growth is having a significant impact within retail sales within the European Union, with Germany and UK being the most spenders in this area. Between years, 2013-14 Germany spent almost €465.09m, as compared to €167.95m, thereby representing an increase of almost four times the annual revenue. Similarly, within the UK,  €395.45m was spent in 2014, as compared to €140.67m spent in 2013, thereby witnessing an 66

increase of almost three-times. above mentioned figures arethe directly translateIn to year Christmas sales within UK, with fitness and. The activity tracking devices being most popular. 2014, they remained a popular choice as a Christmas gift amongst consumers, whilst generating a net revenue of £29.87m and smart watches jumped in popularity, having an exponential growth  between years 2013-14, rising from £2.9m in 2013 to £25.04m in 2014. Thus, by taking a holistic view of the economic scenario within this sector, it can be inferred that demand pull created by consumers are being directly reflected towards spending, which in turn is reflected towards sales and annual GDP, thereby driving the economy forwards. Political Given the rise in Information Technology, particularly within the wireless communication, with consumers and users spending significant amount of their time using virtual communication, together with a foreseeable increase in the future. There is a need for regulation in its effective use, proportional monitoring and forward-linking structural guidance for the future. Having defined the scope of the topic, this paper shall discuss legal trends within telecommunication, together with security and privacy issues including anti-competitiveness, in particular the UK. Ever since the introduction of telecoms within the UK in the late 80’s, it characterised only basic services e.g. voice and text messages using cellular technology 67. Additionally, during the same  period, most of network operators were nationalised with the competition being minimal. Furthermore, due to lack of location and tracking based services being inactive within mobile  phones, the issue of security and privacy p rivacy was not considerable. However, during the recent years as location and GPS technology, together with the complexity of wireless communication has increased, based on previous analysis, several new and existing wireless communication policies have undergone an overhaul. Several countries have promoted wireless communication through increased competition, liberalisation and privatisation of services; which was the primary goal of the US telecommunications Act 1997 and auctioning of band spectrum (RF) within the UK.

According to ITU68, between years 2008-2013, the number of regulators have increased significantly, along with competition within the sector. Additionally, it has been noted that mobile broadband sector had the lowest monopoly, with most competitiveness. This because, UK has been regarded as the most open country, in terms of “free market” within the EU, thereby giving maximum benefit to the end user 6970. This however has created a need for a 66

 “Wearable Technology Sales Revenue in Europe 2013-2014 | Statistic.” Statista, 2013. http://www.statista.com/statistics/375909/wearables-sales-revenue-by-european-countries/. http://www.statista.com/statistics/375909/wearables-sales-revenue-by-european-countries/. 67  Galli, Giampaolo, and Jacques Pelkmans. Regulatory Reform and Competitiveness in Europe: Vertical Issues. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2000. 68  ITU. “Emerging Regulatory Trends,” 2013. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/wkshop_june13_e/fall_e.pdf . 69  Mazar, Haim. An Analysis of Regulatory Frameworks for Wireless Communications, Societal Concerns and Risk: The Case of Radio Frequency (RF) Allocation Al location and Licensing. Universal-Publishers, 2009. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics regulatory body, which led to the creation of OFCOM (Office of Communications) within the UK, which has enforcement powers granted by the government in wide array of matters,  pertaining to wireless communication. The organisation is responsible for auctioning radio frequency bands, which was observed with the launch of 4G. A reform in communications act 2003, section 15271  was amended to enable auctioning. This has led to increased competition 72

among of mobile offer 4Gwithin services consumers. In 2014, review majoroperators network to operators the to UK, (EE, Vodafone, O2RootMetrics and Three) in conducted their reporta it has been observed that the reliability and performance improvement has been attributed towards the increased competition amongst network operators, which benefit the consumer. Additionally, 4G band auctioning has raised £2.4 billion which is a significant contribution towards the annual GDP, with an additional £20bn in expected income73. With the rise of wireless technology evolutions, coupled with incentives offered by mobile operators along with cheaper cellular devices, users and businesses are increasingly spending their time online using their cellular devices for personal, financial and professional transactions. This additionally has given rise to cybercrime, bullying and harassment within the same medium. Therefore, it has become necessary for governments to protect venerable adults and children against victimisation in places such as the internet, mobile communication and social media networks. Within the United States, there have been increasing number of instances where children and young adults have suffered some form of bullying, harassment or abuse using wireless communication74. Additionally, Statista has reported that between 10-15% of office workers have been subject to bullying, harassment and abuse using wireless communication within the US and UK 75. In order to address the emerging problem, in 2013 76 the British Government began consultations in making the internet a safer place p lace for its citizens. Because of the consultations, UK Council for Child Internet Safety (UKCCIS) was formed, with the primary objective of safeguarding internet activity of children and additionally cracking down on paedophiles and child trafficking using the internet in collaboration with the police and internet service providers together with mobile operators. In addition, to issues above, cybercrime is also seen as emerging problem 77, attributed to the growth of wireless technology. 70

 Govt of the United Kingdom. “Making It Easier for the Communications and Telecoms Industries to Grow, While Protecting the Interests of Citizens - Policy - GOV.UK,” July 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-it-easier-for-the-communications-and-telecoms-industries-to71 grow-while-protecting-the-interests-of-citizens grow-while-protecting-the-interests-of-citizens.  “Communications Act 2003.” Text. Accessed. March 24, 2015. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21.. 72  Rootmetrics. “The RootMetrics 2nd Half 2014 UK Mobile Network Performance Review,” 2014. http://www.rootmetrics.com/uk/blog/special-reports/year-in-review-2014-uk. 73  National Audit Office. “4G Radio Spectrum Auction: Lessons Learned,” March 2014. http://www.nao.org.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2015/03/4G-radio-spectrum-auction-lessons-learned-summary.pdf . 74  harassment, This chart shows how many Americans have been subject to different di fferent forms of online. “Infographic: Young People Are More at Risk Ri sk to Be Harassed Online.” Stat Statista ista Infographics. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.statista.com/chart/2866/online-harassment/. http://www.statista.com/chart/2866/online-harassment/. 75  “Workplace Cyber Bullying Actions Experienced by Country 2013 | Statistic.” Statista. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.statista.com/statistics/292631/workplace-cyber-bullying-experienced-by-country/. http://www.statista.com/statistics/292631/workplace-cyber-bullying-experienced-by-country/. 76  Govt of the United Kingdom. “Making It Easier for the Communications and Telecoms Industries to Grow, While Protecting the Interests of Citizens - Policy - GOV.UK.” Accessed March 24, 2015. https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-it-easier-for-the-communications-and-telecoms-industries-togrow-while-protecting-the-interests-of-citizens.. grow-while-protecting-the-interests-of-citizens 77  Wiener-Bronner, Danielle. “Report Shows Cyber Crime Is on the Rise.” The Wire, April 22, 2014. http://www.thewire.com/technology/2014/04/report-shows-cyber-espionage-is-on-the-rise/361024/. http://www.thewire.com/technology/2014/04/report-shows-cyber-espionage-is-on-the-rise/361024/.

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics In June 2014, McAfee in their report on cybercrime78  estimated that $400 billion within the global economy has been lost due to cybercrime with additional losses of $575 billion realistically. The report states that cybercrime is set to increase as more business and individuals continue to use the internet for transactions. To combat the problem legislatively, the UK government has formed and made subsequent revisions to the Computer Misuse Act 1990 79, 80

Proceeds of Crime Act 2002  in order to combat privacy, security and cybercrime related issues. Another emerging trend rising because of wireless technology is the issue of “revenge porn”. Which is effectively publishing intimate content concerning estranged couples. In late 2014, the British Government started consultations on the issue and effectively amended the Communications Act 2003 and Protection from Harassment Act 1997 81 to make such materials illegal and to prosecute under the legislative provisions. From the above-mentioned information and data analysis, it can be deduced that wireless technology does come at a cost, whilst every individual succumbs to its perils in some manner; however, the subsequent reforms in legislation concerning its operation and competitiveness continue to combat the problems whilst providing some degree of protection from misuse. Values The final aspect of this methodology concerns about the changing lifestyles of people with respect to wireless technology. Here, a summary of the above-mentioned observations and facts will be connected together in order to portray the complete picture. Based on the literature review, together with statistical and historical analysis, it can be deduced that wireless technology has caused an “information explosion” and transformed the digital age of the 21 st  century. The push and pull strategies together with the influx of I.o.T has increased the curiosity and inquisitiveness of the people with an ever increasing demand for data bandwidth. The current generation can be classed as an “always online” generation where most of the time is spent in online communication using emails, cellular conversations and social media networks. Due to increased flow of information and “on-demand” content, this has decreased the  perseverance and patience of the people who desire instantly to achieve something using the internet. Additionally, wireless technology is causing people to sleep less and additionally causing them to exercise less. A recent article published by the Guardian 82 stated, in the UK only 50% of children conducted physical activity, which is becoming the leading cause of death worldwide. Additionally, an increasing number of people are shopping online for almost anything; this in turn has led to the downfall of traditional retail stores.

78

 McAfee Research. “Estimating the Global Cost of Cybercrime,” June 2014. http://www.mcafee.com/ru/resources/reports/rp-economic-impact-cybercrime2.pdf. 79  Govt of the United Kingdom. “Computer Misuse Act 1990.” Text. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1990/18/contents. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1990/18/contents . 80  Govt of the United Kingdom. “Proceeds of Crime Act 2002.” Text. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/29/contents.. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/29/contents 81  Govt of the United Kingdom. “Protection from Harassment Act 1997.” Text. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1997/40/contents http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1997/40/contents.. 82  Zollinger-Read, Paul. “How Technology and Inactive Lifestyles Are Changing Our Children.” The Guardian. Accessed March 24, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/technology-inactive-lifestylechanging-children.. changing-children Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics With the onset of wireless technology together with complex smartphones and I.o.T, as a society,  people are increasing multi-tasking, which in some cases could be considered beneficial, but in contrast comes at with its perils. Recent newspaper report by  New York Times83  stated that according to

Figure 14: SWOT Analysis 

scientists, technology is “rewiring” our mental ability, which affects family life as less time is spent together with the family whilst more on technological devices. In addition, it claimed that multitasking people have reduced ability to problem solve various situations. Consequently, people who are increasingly multitasking also suffer from increased stress and in some cases short-term memory loss. In the end, it can be said, that wireless technology has made  people a little less human whilst increasing their analytical power.

SWOT In order to fully understand the potential of this technology, it is imperative to conduct a SWOT (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) analysis within the wireless communications sector. Strengths Wireless communication has come a long way since its evolution and subsequent development. One of the major benefits of this technology is the flexibility of operation, both in terms of operation and service sectors. With the introduction of WSN and I.o.T, as observed in previous sections of this paper, wireless technology can be used in both low and high power devices, such as ZigBee, IPv6, Cellular transmission and microwaves. When implemented in end user  products, it has created a plethora of products, ranging from consumer to professional; 84 amountingdata to billions ofsuggests wirelessthat capable devices,mobile this observation can produced be reinforced by the latest statistical , which 241 million devices were between January and February of 2015 by china alone. Additionally, 1.87 billon cellular devices shipped in year 201385. By combining the above mentioned facts, it can be inferred that due to flexibility of wireless technology, smartphones of various complexity and functionality are being produced. This is based on previous figures, which have suggested that “unbranded” cellular phones, which do not constitute recognised brands, accounted for 845 million shipments, which was the highest out of all branded mobile phones in 2013. The second strengthening point is rise in productivity

83

 Richtel, Matt. “Attached to Technology and Paying a Price.” The New York Times, June 6, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/technology/07brain.html. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/technology/07brain.html . 84  “China: Cell Phone Production by Month 2015 | Statistic.” Statista. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.statista.com/statistics/226434/production-of-cell-phones-in-china-by-month/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/226434/production-of-cell-phones-in-china-by-month/.. 85  “Mobile Phone Vendors: Global Shipments 2013 | Statistic.” Statista. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.statista.com/statistics/263349/global-shipments-of-mobile-phones-by-vendor/. http://www.statista.com/statistics/263349/global-shipments-of-mobile-phones-by-vendor/. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics due to wireless technology. Given the rise of the internet, in combination with wireless technology, businesses around the world have taken advantage of the same to boost their  productivity. Platforms such as VOIP (Voice over Internet Protocol), SIP (Session Initiation Protocol), remote assistance software such as TeamViewer®, Skype® amongst others, have helped business to collaborate collaborate and offer customer service and ssupport upport in real-time real-time basis. In an 86

article published by CIO Insight, (Reisinger, D. 2013)   informs that wireless technology is intrinsically linked to employee productivity, using cellular systems such as mobile devices. This fact is again observed in a recent article published by Govt. Information group 87  that has suggested that employees agree that wireless communication is essential part of their  productivity. Due to continuous innovation in novation within this technology, standards such as NFC (Near Field Communication), WiFi (Wireless Federation), Bluetooth, WiMAX are some of the latest have developed recently, which has fuelled data transmission and communication optimisation. In accordance with the Moore’s Law, PwC 88 has estimated that technology innovation index is set to rise by 36% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate). Therefore, it can be inferred that this technology is continuously evolving and adapting towards customer demands, thereby creating opportunities for future innovations to occur, thereby expanding the multi-pronged communication platform. Opportunities With the growth of wireless technologies, it has ha s additionally given rise to several opportunities in terms of economic growth, accessibility for everyone to benefit this technology and access new market share, in areas such as mobile advertising and implementing “as a service” platform. According to the figures published by Statista89 76%, or €84 billion of the revenue was generated  by mobile services within the Middle East and African regions in 2012 alone. This shows that wireless technology is increasingly being used within the under developed regions, and as of 2014 Africa has been leading the mobile broadband penetration 90 according to the recent article, it continues to inform that over 55% of internet penetration due to this technology would occur in 2014. A similar trend has been observed in India, where internet using the wireless technology us being used to improve the livelihood of people using WiMAX and GSM. One of the ways this has been achieved is by lowering the operational spectrum of the frequency; based on inverse square law of electromagnetic propagation 91, by operating at 800MHz GSM has been able to cover a longer operating distance, thereby providing essential voice and text services. 86

 Reisinger, D. “Mobile Devices Increase Employees’ Productivity.” CIO Insight, 2013. http://www.cioinsight.com/it-strategy/mobile-wireless/slideshows/mobile-devices-increase-employees-productivity. http://www.cioinsight.com/it-strategy/mobile-wireless/slideshows/mobile-devices-increase-employees-productivity. 87  Government Information Group. “Employees Can’t Do Their Jobs Effectively without Their Mobile Devices.” GCN. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://gcn.com/microsites/2012/download-mobile-and-wireless/01-employeemobile-device-needs.aspx.. mobile-device-needs.aspx 88  PriceWaterhouseCoopers. “Mobile Innovations Forecast Series.” PwC. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/technology/mobile-innovation/download-customised-report.jhtml. http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/technology/mobile-innovation/download-customised-report.jhtml . 89  “African and Middle Eastern Telecom Market: Revenue Share 2012, by Service Type | Statistic.” Statista. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.statista.com/statistics/262734/share-of-telecommunications-revenue-inafrica-and-the-middle-east-by-service-type/.. africa-and-the-middle-east-by-service-type/ 90  “Broadband Statistics for 2014 | IT News Africa- Africa’s Technology News Leader.” Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.itnewsafrica.com/2014/07/broadband-statistics-for-2014/ http://www.itnewsafrica.com/2014/07/broadband-statistics-for-2014/.. 91  Richards, John A. Radio Wave Propagation: An Introduction for the Non-Specialist. Springer Science & Business Media, 2008. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics Additional, using the same principle WiMAX and FemtoCells have been incorporated to provide internet access to rural areas. In another aspect, this technology has opened new markets for revenue growth such mobile advertising. As the number of mobile devices both produced and consumed continue to rise, several marketing companies have taken advantage of wireless internet to conduct advertising, thereby creating a new market and a channel for revenue growth. According to the data collected by Statista, mobile advertising created a revenue generation of $24.91 billion, in 2014, and rising to 35.5 billion 2015 and it is estimated 59.67 billion by 201792, with an estimated 400% increase in revenue between years 2011 and 2016 93. These figures are in line with previous estimates about mobile device penetration, usage and production as discussed in earlier sections of this paper. Another emerging market segment can be seen in “as a service” (XasS) on-demand platform. This is essentially virtualising a software service and delivering the same through through the internet, this is commonly called as “cloud computing”. As of 2014, according to CIO Insight94, the XaaS has gone live with several industry sectors such as healthcare, productivity systems, amogst others are delivering value to customers through this  business model. The article briefly mentions the case study of an American hospital, which saved financial resources by utilising ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) through SaaS (Software as a Service)  platform using cloud computing using wireless technology. This has not only enabled mobility of employees but also increased centralisation of data with distributed backups. 95

As this trend continues to rise, it has been estimated by DCR   that an estimated $180 million in revenue is set to be earned using this service in 2015, with a futuristic estimate of $241 billion by 2020. Such exponential revenue growths are primarily attributed to internet bandwidth, as  previously mentioned, technologies such as 4G and 5G 5 G have made it possible for high-speed data transactions on the go.

Weakness So far, this paper has largely lauded the technology and its positive contributions within the technological and social developments. However, wireless technology, just like other technologies does have its weaknesses, together with its subsequent threats. One of the major weakness of this technology, which partly contributed towards its flexibility, is the lack of harmonised standards. In the case of 4G, it can be observed that globally, the service does not operate on a single frequency, as in the case of GSM, which largely operates on 800-900MHz. 4G on the other hand has more than 38 frequency combinations, ranging from 700-2600MHz worldwide, with almost each country operating on its own wavelength96.

92

 “Mobile Advertising Spending Worldwide 2010-2017 2 010-2017 | Forecast.” Statista. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.statista.com/statistics/280640/mobile-advertising-spending-worldwide/ . http://www.statista.com/statistics/280640/mobile-advertising-spending-worldwide/. 93  “Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Advertising Revenue to Reach $11.4 Billion in 2013.” Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2306215. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2306215. 94  av. “Everything as a Service Goes Mainstream.” Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.cioinsight.com/it-newstrends/everything-as-a-service-goes-mainstream.html.. trends/everything-as-a-service-goes-mainstream.html 95  DCR Trendline. “Everything-as-a-Service,” July 2014. http://trendline.dcrworkforce.com/everythingasaservice.html. http://trendline.dcrworkforce.com/everythingasaservice.html. 96  Tofel, Kevin C. “With 38 Frequency Flavors, LTE Won’t Unify 4G,” December 9, 2011. https://gigaom.com/2011/12/09/with-38-frequency-flavors-lte-wont-unify-4g/ https://gigaom.com/2011/12/09/with-38-frequency-flavors-lte-wont-unify-4g/.. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics This poses a significant challenge for the unified growth of communications worldwide and additionally resrtricts mobility for international travellers. The problem has been further exacerbated by LTE (Long Term Evolution) following a similar pattern. Another potential weakness of 4G is the lack of unified communications. 4G as of now is primarily used for data communications; however, it does not support voice, as it needs separate transmission instructs to enable this feature. To combat this issue, VoLTE (Voice over LTE) is currently being rolled out to mobile network operators, who at large have been hesitant to apply it within their network,  partly due to two main reasons. Firstly, most mobile devices currently only support 4G LTE but not VoLTE, therefore the economic advantage is minimal and secondly, to implement such a standard, additional front and  backend infrastructure needs to installed, thereby adding to significant overheads. Another weakness that can be identified is the issue of privacy. In 2014, Ernst and Young 97  outlined several issues regarding privacy and its trends. According to the report with the growth of increased mobility and BYOD (Bring Your Own Device), combined with location and tracking services being utilised within mobile devices, it has led to privacy and data safeguarding issues, as data collection increased on year. Additionally, PwC (PriceWaterhouseCoopers) have further highlighted the privacy issue in their report in 2014 98. The report states that as technology  progresses further, data privacy issue will worsen, given g iven the significant rise of online shopping. To deescalate the worsening problem, the report suggests amending, Safe Harbour program, which shares data between the United States and the EU, through TIPP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Another potential weakness of wireless technology is inadequate legal protection offered to consumers using it, as previously mentioned within the Ernst and Young article. For example, formal privacy laws do not exist within the United Kingdom and significant overhaul within this area is needed, which is additionally identified by The Guardian 99. Looking within the wider scenario, ITU 100 published their report on consumer protection, which highlights the need for urgent legal reform, in line with the pace of technological progress within telecommunications and suggests an incremental amendments to legal regulations such as privacy and consumer  protection, arising due to wireless technology in or der to be future proof. Threats The final element concerning SWOT analysis is the ongoing threat, which has emerged from wireless technology. The first threat, which is becoming quite significant, is the overbearingness of this technology. Based on the social trends and literature review it has been observed that this technology is effectively “taking over” the lives of the people. Both qualitative and quantitative data has exhibited that people are increasingly spending their time using the internet, and with 97

 Ernst and Young. “Privacy Trends 2014,” 2014. http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_ _Privacy_trends_2014:_Privacy_protection_in_the_age_of_technology/$FILE/EY-Insights-on-GRC-Privacy-trends _Privacy_trends_2014:_Privacy_protection_in_the_age_of_technology/$FILE/EY-Insights-on-GRC-Privacy-trends2014.pdf . 98  PwC. “R & C Trendwatch,” April 2014. http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/retail-consumer/publications/assets/pwcrandc-trendwatch-telecommunications-and-data-privacy-policies.pdf . 99  Barrett, David. “‘Privacy Law’ May Need Rewriting due to Modern Technology, Says S ays Senior Judge,” August 26, 2014, sec. News. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11056093/Privacy-law-may-needrewriting-due-to-modern-technology-says-senior-judge.html.. rewriting-due-to-modern-technology-says-senior-judge.html 100  ITU. “Regulation and Consumer Protection in a Converging Environment,” March 2013. https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Regulatory-Market/Documents/Regulation%20and%20consumer%20protection.pdf . Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics the growing number of I.o.T enabled products and as they become cheaper, the problem is set to worsen. The data has additionally shown that people would “feel lost or incomplete” if they are unable to use their cellular device and as such beginning to form an emotional bond with an emotionless device. The third observation is the effect of this technology on physical capabilities of these people. Previous studies have shown that due to lack of physical exercise, partly attributed towards the use of this technology and in combination of stressed caused by multi-tasking has decreased the lifespan of the people, and additionally leading to decreased cognitive abilities, including memory impairment. The second threat is the overall risk factor associated with wireless communication. Previous as discussed within this paper, due to increased competition and liberalisation within this sector, EY reports that risk factors emerge from two distinct areas within telecommunications101. The first risk factor concerns, achieving regulatory regulatory compliance and conformance within this sector. In order to launch and market a typical cellular phone within the consumer market, a string of regulations and compliance have to be met, which include but not limited to, CE (Certificate European) classification e.g. 0700, 0989, meeting RoHS standards, which is connected with health and safety standards, amongst others. The compliance varies within the operating sector, ranging from being a network provider to a telecommunications company. The second risk factor is meeting customer expectations. This is mainly due to increased competitiveness co mpetitiveness amongst manufactures, with each of them are striving to achieve market dominance by launching innovative products, whilst maintaining competitive  prices. Whilst this is considered an ideal situation for the consumer, nevertheless it creates a critical  business case scenario, whereby the business has to operate on slim profit margins, whilst continue to launch innovate telecom products. This however for a new business, in almost all cases is an extremely difficult outlook to achieve, which effectively is the single deterrent factor of launching a new business business within this arena. The threat concerning wireless wireless communication is the rise in cybercrime. In continuation of this topic being mentioned briefly within this paper, Pew Research Center informs that cybercrime is going to increase in subsequent years, as the use of this technology progresses102. The report informs that almost all types of organisations, including government, businesses and individuals have been target of cybercrime in the past. Several Governments such as the United States, China and Russia have been linked to this issue. Additionally, more than 40% of business within the USA in 2014 were subject to such attacks, with JP Mogan, a major American bank was subjected to cybercrime, which affected millions of citizens and over six million businesses.

101

 Ernst and Young. “Top 10 Risks in Telecommunications Revisited.” Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Telecommunications/Top-10-risks-in-telecoms---Top-10-risks-intelecommunications-revisited.. telecommunications-revisited 102  Rainie, Lee, Janna, erson, and Jennifer Connolly. “Cyber Attacks Likely to Increase.” Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. Accessed March 25, 2015. http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/10/29/cyber-attackslikely-to-increase/.. likely-to-increase/ Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Scenario To conclude, having conducted a STEEPV analysis, along with an inspection of trends and drivers within wireless technology with understanding of its effects, in conjunction with SWOT analysis; the scenario methodology will be used to construct a vision of the future in the year 2025 In year 2025, driving your car will be outdated, as the car would be intelligent enough to drive using remote sensors and GPS navigation, using WSN and I.o.T technologies. Wallets and  purses will be non-existent, as all financial transactions; will be carried out using NFC and contactless methods. As a result, banks on the streets would effectively disappear, and the average receptionist and cashier will be replaced rep laced with a virtual reality assistant. Mobile phones will be outdated as well, mainly due to advancements in wearable devices, people will instead have sensors attached to their body and using bone conduction 103  to make and receive phone calls. The technology will have advanced enough to sense the electromagnetic  pulses of emotion and movement and capable enough to translate them into action. An example ex ample scenario would be, if a person “felt” and “desired” to call someone, this sensory information will  be picked up by wearable device, dev ice, then relays it back b ack to bone conduction c onduction system. This would act as both the microphone and earphone of the person, this in return would save the person opening its mouth and creating jaw movements, as the electrical impulses would be translated. Laptops and desktop computers will be outdated and replaced with mini foldable tablets 104105, and VR (Virtual Reality) eyepiece, which will act as both the monitor and navigational aid. Given the rise in data bandwidth and storage trends, downloading of movies will not be required, instead  people will stream them at gigabit speeds to their monitors.

103

 reporter, Dougal Shaw Technology. “Bone Conduction: C onduction: Come on Feel the Noise?” BBC News. Accessed March 26, 2015. http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-29508725. http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-29508725. 104  “Introducing the Flexible Curved OLED.” OLED-TV Lighting News and Infos Experts since 2003. Accessed March 26, 2015. http://news.oled-display.net/flexible-curved-oled/. 105  “Flexible Sapphire Glass And Simpler OS Will Make iiWatch Watch More Fuelband Than Gear.” Forbes. Accessed March 26, 2015. http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2014/01/25/flexible-sapphire-glass-and-simpler-oswill-make-iwatch-more-fuelband-than-gear/.. will-make-iwatch-more-fuelband-than-gear/ Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

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Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics ‘China: Cell Phone Production by Month 2015 | Statistic’, Statista <http://www.statista.com/statistics/226434/production-of-cell-phones-in-china-by-month/> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Chui, M, M Dewhurst, and L Pollak, ‘Transforming the Business through Social Tools | McKinsey & Company’, 2013 <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/transforming_the_business_th rough_social_tools> [Accessed 11 March 2015] Cindy Sage, David O. Carpenter, ‘Public Health Implications of Wireless Technologies.’, Pathophysiology : The Official Journal of the International Society for Pathophysiology / ISP, 16 (2009), 233–46 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pathophys.2009.01.011> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Comment, Drew DeSilverLeave a, ‘For Most Wireless-Only Households, Look South and West’, Pew Research Center <http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/12/23/for-most-wireles <http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/12/23/for-most-wirelesssonly-households-look-south-and-west/> [Accessed 17 March 2015] ‘Communications Act 2003’ <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Cooper, Martin, Richard W. Dronsuth, Albert J. Mikulski, Jr Lynk, James J. Mikulski, John F. Mitchell, and others, ‘Radio Telephone System’, 1975 <http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D&date=19750916&DB=&local e=&CC=US&NR=3906166A&KC=A&ND=1> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Cox, A, ‘M2M Towards the Internet of Things’, 2013 <http://www.juniperresearch.com/whitepaper/m2m> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Crowford, S, ‘Nanotechnology Introduction Series: Communications’, The Future of Human Evolution <http://futurehumanevolution.com/nanotechnology-introduction-seriescommunications> [Accessed 19 March 2015] DCR Trendline, ‘Everything-as-a-Service’, 2014 <http://trendline.dcrworkforce.com/everythingasaservice.html> [Accessed 26 March 2015] Duggan, Maeve, Nicole B. Ellison, Cliff Lampe, Am, a Lenhart, and Mary Madden, ‘Social Media Update 2014’, Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project <http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/09/social-media-update-2014/> [Accessed 17 March 2015] Edison, Thomas A., ‘Means for Transmitting Signals Electrically’, 1891 <http://www.google.com/patents/US465971> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ITU, Emerging Regulatory Trends, 2013 <https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/wkshop_june13_e/fall_e.pdf> <https://www.wto.org/english/tr atop_e/serv_e/wkshop_june13_e/fall_e.pdf> [Accessed 1 March 2015]

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics Ernst and Young, ‘Privacy Trends 2014’, 2014 <http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_ _Privacy_trends_2014:_Privacy_protection_in_the_age_of_technology/$FILE/EY-Insights-onGRC-Privacy-trends-2014.pdf> [Accessed 26 March 2015] Ernst and Young, ‘Top 10 Risks in Telecommunications Revisited’ <http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Telecommunications/Top-10-risks-in-telecoms---Top-10risks-in-telecommunications-revisited> risks-in-telecommunications-revisite d> [Accessed 25 March 2015] ‘EUR-Lex - 31995L0046 - EN’, Official Journal L 281 , 23/11/1995 P. 0031 - 0050; <http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:31995L0046:en:HTML> [Accessed 12 March 2015] Eurofund, ‘Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight | Eurofound’ <http://eurofound.europa.eu/publications/2003/other/handbook-of-knowledge-society-foresight> [Accessed 17 March 2015] ‘Fighting Internet and Wireless Spam Act’, Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia, 2015 <http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Fighting_Internet_and_Wireless_Spam_Act&oldid= 651165120> [Accessed 24 March 2015] ‘Flexible Sapphire Glass And Simpler OS Will Make iWatch More Fuelband Than Gear’, Forbes <http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2014/01/25/flexible-sapphire-glass-and-simpler-oswill-make-iwatch-more-fuelband-than-gear/> [Accessed 26 March 2015] Ford, T, ‘Wireless Technology Trends and Their Impact on the Hospitality Industry’, Hospitality  Net, 2014 <http://www.hospitalitynet.org/event/3003187.html> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Galli, Giampaolo, and Jacques Pelkmans, Regulatory Reform and Competitiveness in Europe: Vertical Issues (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2000) [Accessed 1 March 2015] Garbacz, Christopher, and Herbert G. Thompson Jr, ‘Demand for Telecommunication Services in Developing Countries’, Telecommunications Policy, 31 (2007), 276–89 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2007.03.007 [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Advertising Revenue to Reach $11.4 Billion in 2013’ <http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2306215> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Geoff Appelboom, Annie H. Yang, ‘The Promise of Wearable Activity Sensors to Define Patient Recovery.’, Journal of Clinical Neuroscience : Official Journal of the Neurosurgical Society of Australasia, 2013 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jocn.2013.12.003>[Accessed 25 March 2015] ‘Global Telehealth Market Size 2013-2018 | Statistic’, Statista, 2013 <http://www.statista.com/statistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/> <http://www.statista.com/s tatistics/302621/global-telehealth-market-revenue/> [Accessed 1 March 2015]

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics Gorenburg, D, ‘Regional Separatism in Russia: Ethnic Mobilisation or Power Grab?’, Grab? ’, Harvard University, 1999 <http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~gorenbur/gorenburg%20eas1999.pdf> [Accessed 22 March 2015] Government Information Group, ‘Employees Can’t Do Their Jobs Effectively without Their Mobile Devices’, GCN <http://gcn.com/microsites/2012/download-mobile-and-wireless/01<http://gcn.com/microsites/2012/download-mobile-and-wireless/01employee-mobile-device-needs.aspx> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Government of Canada, Industry Canada, Canada , ‘Canada’s Anti-Spam Legislation - Digital Policy Branch’ <https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/ecic-ceac.nsf/eng/h_gv00567.html> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘CHAPTER 2: SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE LAW’, 2014 <http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldcomuni/37/3704.htm> [Accessed 23 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘Computer Misuse Act 1990’ <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1990/18/contents> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘Making It Easier for the Communications and Telecoms Industries to Grow, While Protecting the Interests of Citizens - Policy - GOV.UK’ <https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-it-easier-for-the-communications-andtelecoms-industries-to-grow-while-protecting-the-interests-of-ci telecoms-industries-to-grow-w hile-protecting-the-interests-of-citizens> tizens> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘New Law to Tackle Revenge Po Porn rn - Press Releases - GOV.UK’ <https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-law-to-tackle-revenge-porn> <https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-law-to-tacklerevenge-porn> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘Proceeds of o f Crime Act 2002’ <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2002/29/contents> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘Protecting Children Online - Making It Easier for the Communications and Telecoms Industries to Grow, While Protecting the Interests of Citizens Policies - GOV.UK’ <https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-it-easier-for-the<https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-it-easier-for-thecommunications-and-telecoms-industries-to-grow-while-protecting-the-interests-ofcitizens/supporting-pages/protecting-children-online> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Govt. of the United Kingdom, ‘Protection from Harassment Act 1997’ 1 997’ <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1997/40/contents> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Grace, B, ‘The Demographics of Cell Phone Usage!’, Top Mobile Trends <http://topmobiletrends.com/demographics-cell-phone-usage/> [Accessed 17 March 2015] ‘GSM’, About Us, 2014 <http://www.gsma.com/aboutus/gsm-technology/gsm> [Accessed 2 March 2015]

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics GSM Association, ‘Environmental Impact of Mobile Communications Networks’, Mobile Technology, Health and the Environment <http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wpcontent/uploads/2012/04/environmobilenetworks.pdf> [Accessed 19 March 2015] Guglielmo, Marconi, ‘Improvements in Apparatus for Wireless Telegraphy.’, 1901 <http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D&date=19010413&DB=world wide.espacenet.com&locale=en_EP&CC=GB&NR=190007777A&KC=A&ND=4> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Gunasekaran, V, and F.C. Harmantzis, ‘Emerging Wireless Technologies for Developing Countries’, School of Technology Management, Stevens Institute of Technology, 2007, 20 [Accessed 1 March 2015] Haider, F, Y Yang, Y Dongfeng, and H Aggoune, ‘Cellular Architecture and Key Technologies for 5G Wireless Communication Networks’, 2014 <http://cms.comsoc.org/SiteGen/Uploads/Public/Docs_TC_5GMWI/Cellular_Architecture_and_  Key.pdf> [Accessed 14 March 2015] Han, J.Y., and Y.J. Kim, ‘Why Smartphone Advertising Attracts Customers: A Model of Web Advertising, Flow, and Personalization’, Elsevier Ltd, 2014 [Accessed 1 March 2015] harassment, This chart shows how many Americans have been subject to different forms of online, ‘Infographic: Young People Are More at Risk to Be Harassed Online’, Statista Infographics <http://www.statista.com/chart/2866/online-harassment/> <http://www.statista.com/chart/2866/online-harassment/> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Harbor Research, Inc, ed., ‘Machine-To-Machine (M2M) & Smart Systems Market Opportunity 2010-2014’, Harbor Research, Inc, 2014 [Accessed 1 March 2015] <http://www.windriver.com/m2m/edk/Harbor_Research-M2M_and_Smart_Sys_Report.pdf> [Accessed 15 March 2015] Hazan, E, J Bughin, M Chui, J Manyika, and M.P. Rausas, ‘Internet Matters: The Net’s Sweeping Impact on Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity | McKinsey & Company’, 2011 <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters> [Accessed <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters> 10 March 2015] Holden, Windsor, ‘Paying the Digital Way’, 2014 <http://www.juniperresearch.com/shop/viewwhitepaper.php?id=762&whitepaper=268> [Accessed 3 January 2015] Holden, Windsor, ‘Smart Phone, Smart wallet, Smart Cash’, May 2014, <http://www.juniperresearch.com/whitepaper/mobile-wallet> [Accessed [Accessed 3 January 2015] Horrigan, John, ‘Internet Access on the Handheld’, Handh eld’, Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project <http://www.pewinternet.org/2009/07/22/internet-access-on-the-handheld/> <http://www.pewinternet.org/2009/07/22/internet-access-on-the-handheld/> [Accessed 17 March 2015]

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

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Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

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Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Levy, Joshua, ‘Universal Serial Bus (USB) Dongle Device Capable of Being Used for Wireless Telephony’, 2013 <http://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?FT=D&date=20130522&DB=world wide.espacenet.com&locale=en_EP&CC=GB&NR=2496812A&KC=A&ND=4> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘Looming Health Crisis: Wireless Technology and the Toxification of America’, Global Research <http://www.globalresearch.ca/looming-health-crisis-wireless-technology-and-the<http://www.globalresearch.ca/looming-health-crisis-wireless-technology-and-thetoxification-of-america/31816> [Accessed 19 March 2015] Manyika, J, M Chui, and J Bughin, ‘Ten IT-Enabled Business Trends for the Decade Ahead | McKinsey & Company’, 2013 <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/ten_itenabled_business_trends_for_the_decade_ahead> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Matterhorn, Lorenzo von, and ehow Contributor, ‘SWOT Analysis of the Telecom Industry’, eHow <http://www.ehow.com/info_7986338_swot-analysis-telecom-industry.html> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Mazar, Haim, An Analysis of Regulatory Frameworks for Wireless Communications, Societal Concerns and Risk: The Case of Radio Frequency (RF) Allocation and Licensing (UniversalPublishers, 2009) McAfee Research, ‘Estimating the Global Cost of Cybercrime’, 2014 <http://www.mcafee.com/ru/resources/reports/rp-economic-impact-cybercrime2.pdf> <http://www.mcafee.com/ru/resources/reports /rp-economic-impact-cybercrime2.pdf> [Accessed 23 March 2015] McDaniel, Brandon T., and Sarah M. Coyne, ‘“Technoference”: The Interference of Technology in Couple Relationships and Implications for Women’s Personal and Relational Well-Being’, Psychology of Popular Media Culture, 2014, No Pagination Specified <http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/ppm0000065> [Accessed 17 March 2015] Middleton, C, A Clement, G Longford, A.B Potter, and B Crow, ‘ICT Infrastructure as Public Infrastructure: Exploring the Benefits of Public Wireless Networks’, 2006 <http://www.cwirp.org/files/TPRC_Wireless_desiderata.pdf> <http://www.cwirp.org/files/TPRC_W ireless_desiderata.pdf> [Accessed 2 March 2 2015] 015] ‘Mobile Advertising Spending Worldwide 2010-2017 | Forecast’, Statista <http://www.statista.com/statistics/280640/mobile-advertising-spending-worldwide/> <http://www.statista.com/s tatistics/280640/mobile-advertising-spending-worldwide/> [Accessed 25 March 2015] ‘Mobile Phone Vendors: Global Shipments 2013 | Statistic’, Statista <http://www.statista.com/statistics/263349/global-shipments-of-mobile-phones-by-vendor/> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Moiz S. Ansari, Zahid Ali Channar, ‘Mobile Phone Adoption and Appropriation among the Young Generation’, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 41 (2012), 265–72 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.04.030>[Accessed 17 March 2015]

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

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Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics reporter, Dougal Shaw Technology, ‘Bone Conduction: Come on Feel the Noise?’, BBC News <http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-29508725> [Accessed 26 March 2015] Richards, John A., Radio Wave Propagation: An Introduction for the Non-Specialist (Springer Science & Business Media, 2008) Richtel, Matt, ‘Attached to Technology and Paying a Price’, The New York Times, 6 June 2010 <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/technology/07brain.html> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Roberts, R, M Löffler, and M Chui, ‘The Internet of Things | McKinsey & Company’, 2010 <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/the_internet_of_things> [Accessed 2 March 2015] ‘Roger Communications | SWOT Analysis | BrandGuide’, MBA Skool-Study.Learn.Share. <http://www.mbaskool.com/brandguide/telecom-service-providers/2364-rogercommunications.html> [Accessed 25 March 2015] Rootmetrics, ‘The RootMetrics 2nd Half 2014 UK Mobile Network Performance Review’, 2014 <http://www.rootmetrics.com/uk/blog/special-reports/year-in-review-2014-uk> <http://www.rootmetrics.com/ uk/blog/special-reports/year-in-review-2014-uk> [Accessed 23 March 2015] ‘Russia Media Stats’, 2014 <http://www.nationmaster.com/countryinfo/profiles/Russia/Media>[Accessed info/profiles/Russia/Media>[ Accessed 23 March 2015] Rydberg, T, ‘The Global Wireless M2M Market’, Berg Insight, 2013 <http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/ProductSheet/bi-globalm2m6-ps.pdf>[Accessed <http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/ProductSheet/bi-globalm2m 6-ps.pdf>[Accessed 23 March 2015] PRNewswire, ‘The Global Wireless M2M Market - 6th Edition’, 2014 <http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-global-wireless-m2m-market--6th-edition300022274.html> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Sarkar, T. K., Robert Mailloux, Arthur A. Oliner, M. Salazar-Palma, and Dipak L. Sengupta, History of Wireless (John Wiley & Sons, 2006) [Accessed 1 March 2015] Sarto, J, ‘ZigBee VS. 6LoWPAN for Sensor Se nsor Networks’, LSR Research <http://www.lsr.com/white-papers/zigbee-vs-6lowpan-for-sensor-networks> [Accessed 19 <http://www.lsr.com/white-papers/zigbee-vs-6lowpan-for-sensor-networks> March 2015] Sharif, M. Nawaz, ‘Technological Innovation Governance for Winning the Future’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79 (2012), 595–604 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.12.004>[Accessed 1 March 2015] Smith, Aaron, ‘Cell Phones, Social Media and Campaign 2014’, Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project <http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/11/03/cell-phones-social-media<http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/11/03/cell-phones-social-mediaand-campaign-2014/> [Accessed 17 March 2015]

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics Smith, Aaron, ‘Older Adults and Technology Use’, Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project <http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/04/03/older-adults-and-technology-use/> <http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/04/03/older-adults-and-technology-use/> [Accessed 17 March 2015] ‘Socioeconomic Impacts of Wireless Technology | Reports’, 2012 <http://www.bsr.org/en/ourinsights/report-view/socioeconomic-impacts-of-wireless-technology> insights/report-view/socioeconomic-impactsof-wireless-technology> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Sorrell, S, ‘SMART HOMES It’s an Internet of Things Thing’, Juniper Research, 2014 [Accessed 1 March 2015] Staff, Fast Company, ‘The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in the Internet of Things’, Fast Company <http://www.fastcompany.com/3041652/most-innovative-companies2015/the-worlds-top-10-most-innovative-companies-of-2015-in-the-in> 2015/the-worlds-top-10-most-innovative-companies-of -2015-in-the-in> [Accessed 14 March 2015] Di Stefano, Giada, Alfonso Gambardella, and Gianmario Verona, ‘Technology Push and Demand Pull Perspectives in Innovation Studies: Current Findings and Future Research Directions’, Research Policy, 41 (2012), 1283–95 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2012.03.021>[Accessed 1 March 2015] Stoddart, J, ‘Thirty Years After: OECD Privacy Guidelines’, 2013 <http://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/49710223.pdf> [Accessed 12 March 2015] ‘Technology Value Matrix First Half 2014: Analytics| Return On Investment (ROI)’, Nucleus Research | Return On Investment (ROI) <http://nucleusresearch.com/research/single/technologyvalue-matrix-first-half-2014-analytics/> [Accessed 5 March 2015] ‘Technology Value Matrix Second Half 2014: CRM| Return On Investment (ROI)’, Nucleus Research | Return On Investment (ROI) <http://nucleusresearch.com/research/single/technologyvalue-matrix-second-half-2014-crm/> [Accessed 5 March 2015] Telenor, ‘Economic Contribution of Mobile Communications.’, Telenor Systems (2012) <http://www.telenor.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Telenor_Eco_Impact_25_april.pdf> [Accessed 20 March 2015] ‘The Mobile Economy 2014’, GSMA, 2014 <http://gsmamobileeconomyeurope.com/> [Accessed 1 March 2015] THEODOR, S, RAPPAPOR, A ANNAMALAI, R.M. BUEHRER, and W.H. TRANTER, ‘WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS: Past Events And A Future Perspective’, Virginia Tech, 2002 <http://www.ee.oulu.fi/~kk/dtsp/tutoriaalit/Rappaport.pdf> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures’, ITU <http://www.itu.int/en/ITUD/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx> D/Statistics/Pages/facts /default.aspx> [Accessed 14 March 2015] ‘The World in 2020 A Technology Vision’, Juniper Research, 2015 <http://www.juniperresearch.com/document-library/white-papers/the-world-in-2020-atechnology-vision> [Accessed 1 March 2015]

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics Warf, B, ‘Telecommunications’, Florida State University, 2009 ‘Wearable Devices: Global Mobile Data Traffic 2019 | Statistic’, Statista, 2014 <http://www.statista.com/statistics/292837/global-wearable-device-mobile-data-traffic/> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘Wearable Technology Global Market Value 2012-2018 | Statistic’, Statista, 2012 <http://www.statista.com/statistics/302484/wearable-technology-market-value/> <http://www.statista.com/st atistics/302484/wearable-technology-market-value/> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘Wearable Technology Sales Revenue Christmas 2013-2014 | UK Statistic’, Statista, 2013 <http://www.statista.com/statistics/375895/wearables-christmas-sales-revenue-by-categpryunited-kingdom-uk/> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘Wearable Technology Sales Revenue in Europe 2013-2014 | Statistic’, Statista, 2013 <http://www.statista.com/statistics/375909/wearables-sales-revenue-by-european-countries/> [Accessed 1 March 2015] Weig, F, J Veira, and H Bauer, ‘Moore’s Law: Repeal or Rene Renewal? wal? | McKinsey & Company’, 2013 <http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/moores_law_repeal_or_renew al> [Accessed 2 March 2015] ‘What Is a Transmitter IC?’, Future Electronics, 2012 <http://www.futureelectronics.com/en/wireless-rf-radio-frequency/transmitter-ics.aspx> [Accessed 2 March 2015] Wheat, J, R Hiser, J Tucker, A Neely, Ne ely, and A McCullough, Designing a Wireless Network (Syngress Publishing, Inc., 2001) <https://books.google.ru/books?id=wAEXhkqnBygC> [Accessed 1 March 2015] ‘WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health’, WHO <http://www.who.int/pehemf/publications/facts/fs304/en/> [Accessed 19 March 2015] ‘WHO | Electromagnetic Fields and Public Health: Mobile Phones’, WHO <http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs193/en/> <http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs 193/en/> [Accessed 19 March 2015] Wiener-Bronner, Danielle, ‘Report Shows Cyber Crime Is on the Rise’, The Wire, 2014 <http://www.thewire.com/technology/2014/04/report-shows-cyber-espionage-is-on-therise/361024/> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Winsdor, H, ‘MOBILE COMMERCE: On the Money’, 2014<http://www.juniperresearch.com/document-library/white-papers/mobile-commercemarkets-~-on-the-money> [Accessed 24 March 2015] ‘Wireless and the Environment: A Review of Opportunities and Challenges | Reports’ <http://www.bsr.org/en/our-insights/report-view/wireless-and-the-environment-a-review-ofopportunities-and-challenges> [Accessed 19 March 2015]

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

‘Wireless Telegraphy Act 2006’, Legislation.gov.uk, 2006 <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/36/contents> [Accessed 12 March 2015] ‘Workplace Cyber Bullying Actions Experienced by Country 2013 | Statistic’, Statista <http://www.statista.com/statistics/292631/workplace-cyber-bullying-experienced-by-country/> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Wrench, Jason S., and Narissra M. Punyanunt-Carter, Puny anunt-Carter, ‘The Relationship between ComputerMediated-Communication Competence, Apprehension, Self-Efficacy, Perceived Confidence, and Social Presence’, Southern Communication Journal, 72 (2007), 355–78 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10417940701667696>[Accessed 12 March 2015] XFab, ‘What Is “More than Moore”?’ <http://www.xfab.com/technology/more-thanmoore/what-is-more-than-moore/> [Accessed 19 March 2015] Zickuhr, Kathryn, and Aaron Smith, ‘Digital Differences’, Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project <http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differences/> [Accessed 17 March 2015] Zollinger-Read, Paul, ‘How Technology and Inactive Lifestyles Are Changing Our Children’, The Guardian <http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/t <http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/technology-inactive-lifestyleechnology-inactive-lifestylechanging-children> [Accessed 24 March 2015] Bauer, H, M Patel, and J Viera, Figure 4: Semiconductor Roadmap, August 2014 <http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/semiconductors/issue%20 4%20autumn%202014/pdfs/mosc2014_full_issue.ashx> [accessed 3 May 2015] Figure 5: ITU Figures <http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/f  <http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx> acts/default.aspx> [accessed 14

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics wide.espacenet.com&locale=en_EP&CC=GB&NR=190007777A&KC=A&ND=4> [accessed 1 March 2015] Jayavardhana, G, B Rajkumar, S Marusic, and M Palaniswami, Figure 9: IoT Vision , 24 February 2014 Levy, Joshua, Figure 2: Methodology Mapping , 28 March 2015 Levy, Joshua,, Figure 14: SWOT Analysis, 28 March 2015 OECD, Figure 6: Key ICT Indicators <http://www.oecd.org/sti/broadband/1.2-OECDWiredWirelessBB-2014-06.xls> [accessed 26 March 2015] Parpala, M, Figure 3: Semiconductor Prices, August 2014 <http://go.semiconductors.org/growingour-economy-through-innovation> [accessed 2 March 2015] Prasad, Ramjee, Sudhir Dixit, Richard Van Nee, and Tero Ojanpera, Figure 13: Globalisation and Wireless Communication, 11 November 2010 Zickuhr, Kathryn, and Aaron Smith, Figure 11: Digital Differences  <http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differences/> <http://www.pewinternet.org/2012/04/13/digital-differ ences/> [accessed 17 March 2015]

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Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Table of Figures Figure 1: Wireless Transmission .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Methodology Mapping .................................................................................................. 13 Figure 3: Semiconductor Prices .................................................................................................... 14 Figure 4: Semiconductor Roadmap .............................................................................................. 14 Figure 5: ITU Figures ................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 6: Key ICT Indicators ........................................................................................................ .................................................... .................................................... 16 Figure 7: Google Trend: Regional Interest ................................................................................... 16 Figure 8: Google Trends: Keyword: Internet of Things ............................................................... 16 Figure 9: IoT Vision...................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 10 Global Wearable Traffic ............................................................................................... ........................................................................ ....................... 19 Figure 11: Digital Differences ...................................................................................................... 21 Figure 12: Extended CMOS.......................................................................................................... 21 Figure 13: Globalisation and Wireless Communication ............................................................... ............................................................ ... 23 Figure 14: SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................... ................................................................ ........................................... 23

Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ

 

Future of ICT: Case of Wireless Technologies: Joshua Levy: Higher School of Economics

Declaration of Oath

Joshua Levy (Джошуа Леви)

This is to confirm my Course Work was independently composed by myself, using solely the referred sources and support. I additionally assert that this coursework has not been part of another examination process. Будущее информационно-телекоммуникационных технологий: беспроводные технологии; Джошуа Леви. Национальный Университет ВШЭ