Why Invest in Africa?

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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA AFRICAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT MANAGERS MARCH 2012

Disclaimer
This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This document does not contain all the information necessary to fully evaluate any transaction or investment, and you should not rely on the contents of this document. The matters described in this document are subject to discussion and amendment. Any investment decision should be made based solely upon appropriate due diligence and upon receipt and careful review of relevant offering documents. Recipients of this document should neither treat nor rely on the contents of this document as advice relating to legal, taxation or investment matters and are advised to consult their own professional advisers. This document includes forward-looking statements that represent our opinions, expectations, beliefs, intentions, estimates or strategies regarding the future, which may not be realized. Actual and future results and trends could differ materially from those described by such statements due to various factors, including those beyond our ability to control or predict. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results or returns. Any discussion of past or proposed investment opportunities should not be relied upon as an indication of future deal flow. Targeted returns are not guaranteed. This document includes information obtained from publicly available information and from third party sources considered to be reliable. Whilst this information is provided in good faith, its not, and does not purport to be comprehensive and has not been independently verified. This document is being distributed by African Infrastructure Investment Managers (Pty) Ltd (FSP Licence Number 4307) (AIIM). The Fund is not a registered “collective investment scheme” under the Collective Investment Scheme Control Act, 2002, and nothing in this Document should be construed as constituting offering to “members of the public” an opportunity to invest in a collective investment scheme in South Africa. AIIM is authorised to render financial services to the South African Fund under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2003. United Kingdom and Europe Macquarie Capital Funds (Europe) Limited, which is distributing this presentation in the United Kingdom and Europe, is a member of the Macquarie Group and is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority. This presentation is only being distributed to and is directed only at persons falling within the following exemptions from the financial promotion restriction in s 21 of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”): (a) authorised firms under FSMA and certain other investment professionals falling within article 14 of the FSMA (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001 Promotion) Order, (the “Order”); (b) high net worth entities (not individuals) falling within article 22 of the Order; and their directors, officers and employees acting for such entities in relation to investment; and (c) persons who receive this presentation outside the United Kingdom, in accordance with applicable local requirements. The distribution of this presentation in the United Kingdom to anyone not falling within the above categories is not permitted and may contravene FSMA.

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1

Snapshot of Africa
The key reasons for investing in SSA ― Robust economic performance, 5.6% over the last decade, 4.4% over the next decade ― A sharp reduction in political conflicts ― An improved macroeconomic environment, with inflation and budgets broadly under control ― A better business climate owing to regulatory reform and privatisation ― Improved access to and integration with international capital markets ― Favourable demographics: from a young population and labour force, to urbanisation and growth in the middle class ― The perception of it being the “last frontier” Key macroeconomic statistics on SSA ― 46 countries ― 840 million people ― Young, growing population ― Rapid urbanisation; 50% of the population will live in cities by 2035 ― USD1.1 trillion economy at market prices

― USD1.9 trillion purchasing power
― Average of USD1,340 GDP/capita ― Geographical area of 20 million square kilometers

Africa’s economic growth since 1970
African annual real GDP, 2008 $ billion
1323
1400 1483 1561

Real GDP CAGR (2011-2020)
5.00%
4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% -%

4.40%

4.17% 3.69% 2.55% 1.77%

1067 839
694

1108

1144

1191

1258

461

1970

1990

1980

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Rest of Africa United States

MENA European Union

Russia

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2

Africa growth
Emerging and developed markets’ share of global GDP
Average projected real GDP growth during 2011-2012

Below 0 Between 0 and 2

According to the IMF, by 2014 emerging markets will have overtaken developed economies in terms of share of global GDP

Between 2 and 4 Above 4 Not covered in data

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, International Monetary Fund, October 2010

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3

Africa’s infrastructure gap

USD93 bn per year required
66% for Capital 33% for M&O USD17 bn could be gained from efficiency

Poor state of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa cuts national economic growth by 2% every year and depresses business productivity by as much as 40%

USD45 bn current spending per year USD30 from
financed by African taxpayers & infra users USD15 from external sources

Even with the gains from efficiency, Funding Gap of USD31bn

Funding Gap addressed through PPPs
1 WORLD BANK REPORT: A time for Transformation, Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, 2009 | 4

Why accelerate?
Overall Infrastructure Spending Needs for Sub-Saharan Africa
100 80

USD bn p.a.

60 40 20 0

Transport

Water

Current Spend + Wastage

Irrigation

Required Spend

Funding Gap 1 (wastage removed)

Power

Funding Gap 2 (wastage continues)

1

SOURCE: Africa Development forum: “A Time for Transformation”, November 2009 | 5

Total

ICT

What needs to be done
Current state of PPP’s in Africa  Lots of false starts – poor planning  Re-inventing the wheel – “the African solution”  Implementing Authorities should borrow Finding a solution  Limited re-invention of the wheel  An implementing authority that knows what it doesn't know  Contract vs Partnerships  Not a political wish-list on enforcement of

skills/models/tools from leverage off each other and get integration  Insufficient focus

 Reasonable “development profit” expectation
 Not too big  Is affordable – but not underpriced  Can turn a real project within 2 years

Government obligations, nor authority in PPP units to enforce Government compliance  Framework pointless if players don't obey the

rules

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6

Type of capital needed

Equity should be Agile
 Capital needed for final close is not

Agile

necessarily project life

the

capital

needed

for

Innovative

 Equity based at beginning of project – more simple, faster deployment  Debt later in project life – more

complicated structure

Mobile

 Informed equity should be the party
driving the process

Faster deployment

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7

Best type of capital
 The capital requirement is large, but not insurmountable  Infrastructure assets are best suited to long term
Relative Scale (USD bn)
DFI (2005-2008) SA pension industry Mining investment (2005-2008) Infra shortfall (2010-2015)

investors
― Pension asset ― Insurance asset ― Long term liability match  Ideally want to match source of capital to location of asset  So, can pension funds be the answer to the funding deficit?
12,000 10,000

Infra requirement (2010-2015) Africa annual GDP 0 200 400 600 800

Cash-flow characteristics
Uses of Funds during Operations
Operating Expenditure
Overheads

Lifecycle Expenditure Corporation Tax Paid Overdraft Interest Cost Cash Available to Shareholders

8,000
ZAR 'm

6,000

4,000

Shareholder Loan Stock and Equity Bridge Servicing Mezzanine Debt Servicing
Senior Debt Cash Sweep

1. 2. 3. 4.

Africa Development forum: “A Time for Transformation”, November 2009 Africa Development forum: “A Time for Transformation”, November 2009 UNCTAD: “Economic Development Report 2010”, 2010 Tower Watson: “Global Asset Pension Study” February 2011

2,000

Senior Debt Interest & Fees Senior Debt Principal

0

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8

Sources of equity capital for Infrastructure
 Current sources of capital ― Equity: Funds, DFI, Sponsor, SWFs ― Debt: Commercial Banks, Financial Institutions, DFI,

Solely Africa focused annual equity fund raising 2000 - 2010
25 20
18 13 11 9 7 12 9 5.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.2 8 22

Government 

15
Both important for different reasons ― Debt: scale ― Equity: mobiliser and risk taker 10 5 0
4
2 0.1 0.5



Capacity ― USD 11bn raised for PE in last 5 years ― Approximately USD 5bn infrastructure focused ― Deployment period 3-5 years ― USD 1 - 1.5bn pa ― Ability to leverage ― USD 3 - 4bn debt pa ― Total funding circa USD 5bn pa

2008

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

Aggregate capital (USDbn)

Number of Funds



Current “dry powered” of equity approximately USD 2-3bn

― Looking for viable projects

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

2010
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Pensions industry
 Recent Study by Towers Watson of the UK ― Top 13 global market = USD27 trillion in assets ― Represents 76% of combined GDP ― 12% increase year on year from 2009 ― Record value levels, but off the GDP proportion peak of 78% in 2007    Largest markets are US (58%), UK (13%) and Japan (9%) Fastest year on year growth occurred in SA (28%) Global Pension Asset Allocations
Asset Type Equities Bonds Cash Other (incl. infrastructure) Allocation 47% 33% 1% 19%

African Pension Industries (USD bn), 2010
Characteristics ― 44% as assets in Defined Contribution schemes, up from 40% in 2005, and 35% on 2000 ― Average asset allocation remain largely unchanged Kenya Nigeria SA 0 100 200
4.5
11.3 256

Ghana

2.1

― 65% of assets held by private sector funds
― Japan and Canada anomalous  African markets ― Dominated by SA, but others growing

300

― Capital is mobile and flows across regions

Source: Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study, 2011, Feb 2011, & AIIM

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10

Global pension market
20,000 15%

16,000
9%

12%
9%
8% 6% 4% 4%

USDbn

12,000 8,000 4,000 Netherlands Australia Switzerland 2000 Canada 2010 CAGR (RHS) UK Japan USA

5%

6% 3% 0%

350 280

20%

17% 14%

16% 12% 8% 4% 0%

USDbn

210 140 70 -

South Africa 2000

2010

Brazil CAGR (RHS)

Source: Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study, 2011, Feb 2011, & AIIM | 11

Pension asset allocation: A shift toward alternatives
100% 90% 80%
49% 47%

Equities: Down by 2%

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
5% 19% 1% 2010 40% 33%

Bonds: Down by 7%
Cash: Down by 5%

Other: Up by 14%

0% 6% 1995

2000 Cash Other Bonds

2005 Equity

A shift toward alternatives
Source: Towers Watson, Global Pension Assets Study, 2011, Feb 2011, & AIIM STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL | 12

What are Investors saying?
 Can we get Global Pension into Africa? ― SA industry are already the majority owners of infra assets ― Other African pensions growing, and ― International pensions looking  Don’t need to mobilise a lot ― 1% of global pension for Africa ― 1% of global pension for Africa ― 10 years shortfall  Pensions funds behind most sources of capital, so “private sector” is a combination of both public and private funds  But importantly, there is exiting capital available for viable projects 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Pensions Assets as % of GDP

Source: Adapted from World Bank’s Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) database

South Africa Nigeria Kenya Ghana
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Netherlands Switzerland US Australia UK

Canada Japan Ireland Hong Kong Brazil Germany France

13

ZARm
1 2 3 4 5 6

7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Stable operations Completion of construction

Commencing of tolling

2006 2007 2008

Agile capital

Mature traffic forecasts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Right capital – Right time

Risk dissipation and Value

Equity Value

2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2024
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Sustainable capital

Equity Risk Premium

11%

12%

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Equity Risk Premium (%)
14

Unpacking the risks
Specific risk can be mitigated through project finance structuring
Realizations Inflation and Forex
Tariff escalation designed to mitigate variations around forecasts Short term equity hedging to cover transaction exposure Longer term hedging instruments for fixed debt obligations to link costs to revenue currency Development of local long term capital markets create natural acquirers of matched currently assets)

Corruption
Transparent procurement process and multiple party due diligence, plus DFI funding participation

Quality
Strong international (incl. South African, French and Chinese) contractor interest and competence

Political Commitment
Central government direct agreements guaranteeing implementing authorities obligations

Sustainability Government Default and Country Risk
Political Risk Insurance to cover government default, currency convertibility, repatriation and contract frustration. 52 countries in Africa – only pick the best

Local lenders and investors capacity creating long term local vested interest
Dependency on infrastructure makes assets critical service providers
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Unpacking the risks

To solve Africa’s infrastructure gap…

Source: aidinfo.org

Source: AIIM

Need to deploy capital faster
| 16

Thank you

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